Maduro's downfall: Was the US capture of Maduro legal?

On Saturday, US military forces conducted a swift operation that saw former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife captured and brought to the United States. This dramatic move has raised many questions: Was the operation legal? What was its strategic goal? How will Venezuela respond? And how will this operation influence global politics, especially regarding relations with Iran?

Venezuela has been under Maduro’s authoritarian rule since 2013, following the death of Hugo Chávez. Maduro’s regime has faced widespread allegations of corruption, election fraud, and human rights abuses. The US has long accused the Venezuelan government of being a rogue state, with ties to drug cartels and human rights violations. The decision to target Maduro, particularly through military action, is seen as a bold move in a long-running geopolitical struggle for influence in Latin America.

The capture is not just about Maduro. It’s also a message to the countries that have supported his regime, most notably Russia, China, and Iran. The US, under both the Trump and Biden administrations, has aimed to weaken these alliances, hoping to isolate Maduro and force regime change through a combination of sanctions and diplomatic pressure.

Despite Maduro’s removal, Venezuela remains under the control of his allies within the military and government. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has assumed the presidency, but it remains unclear how long she can maintain power. The regime's survival will depend on its ability to manage internal divisions and suppress any uprisings that could disrupt their control.

To better understand the legal, political, and regional implications of the operation, we spoke with Dr. Daniel Wajner of The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, whose research focuses on legitimacy and legitimation in international relations, conflict resolution, populism in foreign policy, regional integration, and transnational politics in Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. We also spoke with Jonathan Liverman, a Reichman University student and Venezuelan Jew, who offered a personal and regional perspective on how Maduro’s capture is being perceived within the Venezuelan diaspora.

For many Venezuelans, the operation is seen as a sign of hope, though the situation remains highly volatile. Maduro’s capture has given rise to further speculation about the future of Venezuela’s political landscape. However, some experts argue that while this operation sends a strong message, it may not be enough to dismantle the authoritarian structures that have held power for over two decades .

One of the most significant debates surrounding the operation is whether it was legal under international law. The principle of sovereignty is a cornerstone of the UN Charter, and the capture of a sitting leader by a foreign power raises questions about the legitimacy of such actions. The US government has justified its actions based on the concept of the “responsibility to protect,” a doctrine that allows for intervention in cases of massive human rights violations.

However, critics argue that this doctrine cannot be applied unilaterally without international consensus. Many believe that the operation’s legality is questionable, particularly given the lack of a UN mandate. In addition, the notion of a nation acting in its own self-interest, with oil resources and regional influence at stake, complicates the moral legitimacy of the intervention .

While the US operation focuses on Venezuela, its effects will ripple through the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran. Venezuela has long been a key ally of Iran, with both nations working together to undermine US influence in the region. Iran has provided Venezuela with economic support, military training, and other forms of assistance as part of their strategic alliance.

The US’s aggressive move against Maduro sends a clear message to Iran: the US will not hesitate to target its allies, even in Latin America. This could have significant implications for Israel’s security strategy, particularly as tensions rise between Israel and Iran. Israel is watching closely, aware that any instability in Venezuela could prompt Iran to increase its activities in the region, further complicating Israel’s security landscape.

Additionally, Israel may look to take advantage of the situation by strengthening its position in the region, particularly in countering Iran’s influence. With Iran facing internal unrest, the US targeting its Venezuelan ally could shift the balance of power in ways that benefit Israeli interests.

The capture of Nicolás Maduro marks a critical juncture in the ongoing struggle for political change in Venezuela. While it’s unclear whether this will lead to long-term regime change, the operation demonstrates the US’s willingness to take bold actions to reshape the geopolitical landscape in Latin America. For the Venezuelan people, this could be the beginning of a new era—one filled with both uncertainty and opportunity.

As the world watches, the situation in Venezuela will continue to unfold, with broader implications for international relations, particularly between the US, Israel, and Iran. It is a time of immense change and uncertainty, and only time will tell whether Venezuela will emerge from its political crisis stronger or more fractured .