Americans agree presidential election matters - but who should win?

While both Republicans and Democrats are broadly in agreement that the November election matters, there is deep division within the country over who should prevail.

By DONNA RACHEL EDMUNDS
Voters check in at Whittier Community Center during the primary election in Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S. August 11, 2020. (photo credit: REUTERS/NICOLE NERI)
Voters check in at Whittier Community Center during the primary election in Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S. August 11, 2020.
(photo credit: REUTERS/NICOLE NERI)
A record number of Americans say it really matters who wins the presidency in November, but with just three months to go until the election, the nation is still evenly divided over who the president will be.
In what could prove to be the most hotly contested presidential election in a generation, 83% of registered voters surveyed by the Pew Research Center said that "it really matters" who wins the election in November, against just 16% who said that things will be pretty much the same regardless of who wins - the highest share saying this in 20 years of Pew surveys on the question.
By contrast, in the run up to the 2000 election in which George Bush Jr faced down Al Gore, just 50% of Americans thought it mattered who won that battle, while 44% expected the result to make little difference either way. When Donald Trump faced Hillary Clinton in 2016, 74% of Americans thought the result would make a difference to the country - although a majority expected Clinton to win.
But while both Republicans and Democrats are broadly in agreement that the November election matters, there is deep division within the country over who should prevail.
Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee has the edge over the current incumbent, Republican President Donald Trump, in voter preference: 53% of registered voters surveyed told Pew that if the election were held today they would vote for Biden, while 45% would cast their ballot for Trump.
However, while Biden's support base is broader, Trump's is stronger: two thirds of Trump supporters (66%) said they strongly support him, while fewer than half of Biden's (46%) said the same. In both cases, among those who came out strongly in favor of their preferred candidate a nearly identical proportion of voters said they were certain to vote for their candidate - 85% in Trump's case, and 84% in Biden's.
In a year in which the coronavirus has dominated both headlines and global governance, the 1992 Clinton campaign's maxim: "It's the economy, stupid," still holds strong. The economy was the top issue named by registered voters by a clear margin, with 79% say the issue will be an important factor in who to vote for. This may play to the Republicans' advantage as among registered voters surveyed, the party holds a nine point lead on the issue - 49% thought the party was better able to handle the economy, against 40% who thought the Democrats could do a better job.
Other issues felt to be very important by voters when deciding who to cast their ballots for were health care (68%), Supreme Court appointments (64%), and the coronavirus outbreak (62%). Both healthcare and the coronavirus play to the Democrat's advantage, with the party holding a 12 point advantage over the Republicans on healthcare, and an 18 point advantage when it comes wo which party could do a better job handline the public health impact of COVID-19.
But the polling also revealed a stark divide between the voting priorities of the two parties' supporters: among Trump supporters, 88% said the economy was the most important factor, compared to 72% of Biden supporters, while 74% of Trump supporters said that dealing with violent crime was very imporant to their vote, against just 46% of Biden supporters who said the same.
On the other hand, health care was the most important issue to Biden supporters, against 48% of Trump supporters who said the same, while the next most important issue for Biden supporters was the coronavirus outbreak (82%). Just 39% of Trump supporters thought the pandemic was an important factor in deciding who to vote for.
The divide was greatest over climate change - 68% of Biden supporters said the matter was very important when casting their ballot. By contrast, a mere 11% of Trump supporters said the same.
Yet the coronavirus may influence the result in other ways. Nearly half (49%) of registered voters surveyed told the pollsters that they expect to have difficulty casting a ballot in the November election, a substantial increase from the 15% who said the same ahead of the October 2018 midterm elections.
And although Trump supporters were more likely to say they thought it would be easy to vote (60%, against 40% of Biden supporters who said the same), the trend toward a large drop held true among supporters of both parties, down by 26 points among Republicans, and 43 points among Democrats since the mid-terms.
There are also stark differences in how they intend to vote: among those who support Trump or are leanng toward him, four in five (80%) say they would prefer to vote in person, whereas just 17% intend to vote by mail. Conversely, some 58% of Biden supporters intend to mail their ballot in.


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