Pro-Israel Adams drops out of mayoral race, but does it change anything for NYC Jews?

NYC Mayor Eric Adams announced that he is dropping out of the November mayoral election, but polling indicates that the race will not be fundamentally changed as far as New York Jews are concerned.
 
A September Marist Poll indicated that Adams held just 9% of likely votes. A poll by the American Association of Retired Persons, Zenith Research, and Public Progress Solution estimated the same.
 
Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani has been leading with 45% and almost 42% support in the same polls. The closest front-runner, former gov. Andrew Cuomo had 23% in the AARP poll and 24% in the Marist poll.
 
Even if all of Adam’s support shifted to Cuomo instead of Republican Curtis Sliwa, it would not be enough to match Mamdani.

A July Zenith Research and Public Progress Solution poll predicted that in a race without Adams, Mamdani would win with 51% of likely voters. Even if Cuomo and Mamdani went head-to-head, the latter was expected to win with 52% of the vote. AARP and Marist came to similar conclusions.

 
A July New York Solidarity Network Poll showed that the majority of likely Jewish voters were against Mamdani.
 
Still, with all the players in the field, Mamdani enjoyed a plurality of Jewish voters with 37% support. Adams had 25% of the Jewish vote, and Cuomo 21%. AARP had Jewish voters backing Cuomo with 38% of the Jewish vote to Mamdani’s 22%. Marist had both Cuomo and Mamdani with 35% by mid-September, and just 17% went to Adams.
 
The NYC mayor told the New York Post eight days ago that the polls covered “likely voters,” and did not account for fresh Jewish voters who, he said, would come out in droves to support him.
 
This incumbent mayor was a pro-Israel stalwart, particularly in contrast with Mamdani, who is worried that he will lose mainstream Jewish community organizations over his support for the BDS movement and reluctance to condemn protest slogans like “globalize the intifada.”
 
While Mamdani has indicated that he would arrest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu given the opportunity, Adams greeted Netanyahu as a hero.
 
The UJA-Federation of New York praised Adams for his support of the Jewish community, in particular in the wake of Hamas’s October massacre.
 
“In moments of great pain and fear, he stood with our community, advocating for our safety, condemning antisemitism, affirming his support for the State of Israel, and speaking out on behalf of the hostages and their families,” the federation said. “This is the kind of leadership we need from our elected officials and all those seeking office.”
 
The Orthodox Union echoed the sentiment, adding that Adams’ decision to drop out of the race demonstrated his leadership and prioritization of the city’s future.

“We express gratitude to Mayor Adams for all of his efforts throughout his tenure to provide security and protection for NYC’s Jewish community and institutions, and for his outspoken support of the community and of the State of Israel during this difficult time,” said the Orthodox Union.
 
Despite the accolades that Adams has received from the Jewish community, according to the NYSN poll, issues of crime and affordability are much more important to overall voters than Israel and antisemitism.
 
Seventy-six percent of respondents based their vote on local issues, and 17% more on antisemitism and Israel. Even among Mamdani voters, his position on Israel was the seventh most important issue, with the cost of living being the top priority.
 
Polls illustrated that younger, secular Jews favored Mamdani, while older, more conservative Jews leaned toward Cuomo. Orthodox Jews tended to support Adams.
 
According to NYSN, among those voting for Mamdani, a quarter have concerns about his support for BDS and anti-Israel activism. Among all voters, this concern rose to 68%. Around half of likely Jewish voters believed that Mamdani was antisemitic, and 58% were concerned that the city would become less safe for Jews under his command.
 
While Adam’s departure from the race is dramatic and signals the closing of a chapter in the political career of a strong friend of Israel, the event is likely to have little impact on the outcome for Jewish New Yorkers. Mamdani is still predicted to win, and even significant portions of Jewish voters have prioritized his populist ideas over rejecting him for his ideology.
 
Yet, if Adams is correct, and a large reserve of first-time Jewish voters is in play, the polling may be misleading.