Silver Poised for 12% Upside as Recent Triangle Breakout Sets Stage for Fresh Surge

Silver prices have surged this week, trading near $36.90 per ounce, driven by a textbook breakout from a multi-week symmetrical triangle chart pattern, echoing a similar technical move in early June that preceded a 12% rally.

Market data show the silver spot price hovering between $36.90–$37.20, with Bullion reporting $37.16 and APMEX recording $37.19. This breakout mirrors a pattern in early June, when silver’s ascent from a triangle formation yielded gains of approximately 12% in just two weeks.

Technical analysts highlight that silver resumed an upward trajectory after consolidating within a tight triangle since early July, Bollinger Bands tightening and MACD hovering near neutral, signaling a buildup for a volatile move. Similarly, FXEmpire noted silver had “consolidated after breaking above $35,” reinforcing the breakout thesis.

Adding to the technical case, Smart Silver Stacker identifies this breakout as emerging from an “ascending triangle that has been forming since 2020”, a notable multi-year structure that, when breached, can trigger potent moves. In parallel, Money Metals reports that the SIL mining ETF is behaving strongly, having broken out from its long-term triangle pattern.

Beyond technicals, the silver market’s supply-demand dynamics underpin the bullish thesis. The global silver market has experienced its fifth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2025, with the Silver Institute estimating a shortfall of 117.7 million ounces. This structural weakness adds credibility to sustained upside.

Complementing silver’s fundamental appeal are macroeconomic factors: A softer U.S. dollar and lingering inflation concerns have lifted precious metals broadly, and silver has risen about 22% year-to-date, outperforming gold’s 24% gain.

Drawing on the June precedent, analysts say a repeat rally could propel silver toward $40 within two weeks, and potentially as high as $60, in the event of accelerated momentum. The June move saw prices jump from around $32 to nearly $36, supporting hopes for a similar breakout. Investor and market commentator Rashad Hajiyev highlighted this setup in a recent tweet, noting that the prior breakout led to a 12% gain in under two weeks and expressing confidence that silver could hit $40 soon, potentially opening the door to his longer-term $60 target.

Greg Bartalos of Barron’s underscores that silver remains roughly 34% below its all-time high of $48.70 in 2011, noting current strength signals continued upside potential. A high gold-silver ratio (currently near 91) further hints at silver being undervalued relative to gold.

FXEmpire’s Muhammad Umair adds that the breakout above the $35–$36 area “builds bullish momentum,” though he recommends watching $36.40 as a near-term resistance pivot. Meanwhile, Money Metals highlights silver’s favorable industrial demand and structural supply deficits as key drivers.

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