Iran thinks oil may help push new Iran deal

Iran’s analysis says that during the Trump era, the White House opted to re-impose oil sanctions to “open more space in the world market in order to sell more oil."

Iranian oil platform, Iran flag (photo credit: Reuters)
Iranian oil platform, Iran flag
(photo credit: Reuters)

Tehran believes the price of oil could help push the US into a new Iran deal, according to Iranian pro-government media. As talk about sanctions and the possibility of a new deal continued this week, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency predicted that rising oil prices may be a win for Iran.

“The United States has intensified sanctions on Iran’s oil in two periods of time and tried as much as it can to warn traditional Iranian oil customers from continuing to import from our country,” the recent article said. This coincided with the US using “hydraulic fracturing technology to extract shale oil from major shale fields in that country, especially in Texas, which was referred to as the Shale Boom in the United States,” it said.

Supposedly, the US gains in this technology coincided with sanctions in 2013-2014, according to Fars.

“It was this shale boom that, according to statistics, pushed oil prices up from an average of $111 a barrel in 2012 to $98 in 2014 and $ 43 in 2016,” the article said. “The use of hydraulic fracturing technology led to a sharp increase in US oil production, from a mere importer of oil to one of the largest producers.”

The US was thus angling to prepare the world to accept imports of American oil and was driven by economic reasons to sanction Iran’s oil, the article said.

Smoke rises at an oil refinery in Tehran. (credit: REUTERS)Smoke rises at an oil refinery in Tehran. (credit: REUTERS)

“This served American interests in two ways,” it said. “First, it put Iran under economic pressure, at least in the Middle East and North Africa, as one of America’s main competitors, and second, it opened the door for US oil to enter the world market. After the imposition of oil sanctions, some old Iranian oil customers who did not want to violate the sanctions were forced to import oil from the United States, which, along with declining Iranian oil revenues, boosted the US oil industry and benefited both sides.”

During the Trump era, according to Iran’s analysis, the White House opted to reimpose oil sanctions to “open more space in the world market in order to sell more oil and make American oil companies more profitable.” This was the real conspiracy at the heart of the US ending the Iran deal, Fars said. The US was increasing oil sales and pumping two million barrels a day, but then came Joe Biden, it said.

According to Fars, the new US administration wants to control the price of gas in the US, which has been rising, but the Biden administration also cares about climate change.

“To achieve the first goal, the US government must stop the increase in oil prices in the world market, and to achieve the second goal, the increase in oil prices will be a serious challenge,” the article said. “Therefore, in order to achieve both goals, the US government must lower oil prices.”

Meanwhile, the US is scoring some own goals, according to Fars. The Biden administration revoked a license for the Keystone Pipeline, the article said, adding that gas prices jumped, and Canada was incensed. Meanwhile, OPEC has rejected US demands to raise oil output, only tacitly agreeing to raise it by 400,000 barrels a day, Fars said, and with the COVID pandemic shifting, there is high demand for oil and gas again.

“In addition, rising gas prices in Europe and the consequent shift of power plants to higher oil consumption have been further exacerbated by rising oil prices on the world market, which have now crossed $93 a barrel,” the article said.

Iran now has America over a barrel, according to Fars. The US has tried to prevent the rise in oil prices, and the Biden administration even opened the strategic reserve in the US, the article said.

“The Biden administration tried hard to bring the energy price down before the Christmas holidays in the country, where travel is naturally on the rise and gasoline prices are becoming more and more apparent,” it said. “Omicron provided some relief, as prices dropped, but now the US faces pressure again.”

Over the past year, oil has risen from about $60 a barrel to $93, the article said. “US gasoline prices are at their highest level in seven years, and the puzzle of lifting sanctions is being completed,” it said.

Iran is watching middle America be squeezed, the report said. “The American Automobile Association says that the average price of gasoline in all US states and even in the states of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Alabama, which have the lowest gasoline prices, was more than $3 per gallon,” it said.

Now, all Iran has to do is wait for the US role in the new Iran deal talks in Vienna to be activated, the article said.

“It must be said that it is likely that this is the difference in oil prices that this time has forced the Americans to enter into serious negotiations with the Iranian side,” it said. “The United States has no choice but to open the door for Iranian oil to enter the equation of limiting its oil industry in order to counter climate change, and on the other hand in promising to control gasoline prices to help livelihoods, both of which were part of Biden’s election promises.”

Iran is watching now that the increased gas prices could “plunge many American companies into crisis and will absorb a significant portion of the income of the American people. If Biden can reduce the price of gasoline in any way, it can live up to one of its campaign promises and boost its popularity again in the months leading up to the congressional election.”

The article claims that the administration “can use the agreement with Iran as an achievement for the victory of the Democrats in the Senate and the House of Representatives.” Iran is thus meddling in the US election by dragging out the deal negotiations.

“In fact, given what has been said, controlling world oil prices and preventing further price increases is the main reason why the Americans have come to the negotiating table with the Iranian side in Vienna and reduce the maximum pressure on the negotiating table,” the article said.

Iran’s media and experts predict that the US will be more active in the coming days and weeks, “both in terms of giving concessions to the Iranian side and in terms of reaching an agreement with the American side as soon as possible.”