The end of hostilities in Gaza will not mark the conclusion of Israel’s battle, experts warned.
Presently, the conflict in Gaza demands Israel’s undivided attention as it strives for victory. The nation stands united in bolstering IDF soldiers while grappling with the immediate aftermath of the October 7 massacre, which has left an indelible emotional and physical impact on the residents of southern Israel. Simultaneously, efforts are under way to secure the release of hostages.
However, at the same time, the country is experiencing layers of challenges, some of which could have long-term negative consequences if left unaddressed.
Here are three challenges of war that likely need to be getting more attention.
Unprecedented child trauma
The number of children who will need emotional support is expected to be unprecedented – “numbers that we never, ever dealt with in any previous war,” according to Yehuda Leeman, a psychotherapist and lecturer at Ono Academic College.
He said that at least half – if not all – of the country’s three million children have been affected by the war, even if they never stepped foot in southern Israel. That’s because the number of casualties is so high, the battle is ongoing, the number of reservists is unprecedented, and rockets have regularly hit the center of the country.
Moreover, children are exposed to media and social media much more than they were in the past.
“Social media often does not have any filters, and children are exposed to rising anti-Israel and antisemitic comments, many times through the online games that they are playing,” Leeman said.
This is in addition to the country’s four significant news stations constantly reporting on the war – something Israel did not have during the Yom Kippur War, for example.
Finally, also unprecedented is that children were kidnapped by Hamas, leaving many children afraid that they, too, could be vulnerable.
According to Leeman, children from the South tend to be more resilient because they have experienced rockets and terrorism for so long. In contrast, those living in other parts of the country might be more susceptible to developing post-traumatic stress disorder or other severe effects from the situation. However, he stressed that not every trauma will develop into post-trauma syndrome.
Leeman advised parents to watch for unusual patterns in their children, to decide whether to seek help. It is expected that a child would be frightened when a siren goes off, but look for whether your child is regressing, afraid to stay alone when it is quiet, unwilling to go to school for a prolonged period, isolated in their room, or having horrific thoughts over and over.
“If they see any of these patterns, I would encourage parents to go and seek advice,” Leeman said, though he noted that this could be calling a helpline for now, as getting frontal care could take months.
He said the number of people needing help will surpass the country’s capacity. There were not enough therapists, psychologists, or even psychiatric beds in Israel before the war. The waiting time for a psychiatrist via the health funds was up to six months before October 7. Yet, Leeman said, waiting can lead to long-term or chronic trauma that is much harder to live with.
“I do not know what will happen after the event,” he told The Jerusalem Post. “It’s going to be crazy. If you do not have money to go privately, you will have a big problem.”
War stress fuels unhealthy eating
In times of elevated stress, individuals often instinctively adopt a more primitive mindset, looking for the fastest way to achieve comfort, explained Ayelet Barak-Nahum, a culinary art therapist and social worker. Food tends to be the first place that people turn.
A baby does not know how to identify that he is hungry. He just knows that something is not right with his body, Barak-Nahum explained. So, he cries. The stress goes away when his mom hears him, picks him up, and feeds him. It is not just the food but her warm body, voice, and love.
As such, “When we get older, and we are on the edge – like we are now – and we are looking to get rebalanced to bring down the stress, many of us use food to calm us down,” she said.
While food does not actually provide calmness, and junk food has been linked to anxiety and depression, studies have shown that Barak-Nahum is correct: some people use food as a self-therapeutic intervention.
However, if done too often, the long-term results can be detrimental. Already, the country saw an increase in obesity as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic – an increase that has not gone down yet, and “I expect it will get worse now,” said Prof. Ronit Calderon-Margalit of Hadassah Medical Center, director of the Braun School of Public Health and Community Medicine at Hebrew University.
She said that at the beginning of the war, people went to work and school less, and when people stayed at home, they tended to eat more and do less physical activity. But even as most of the country has reopened, there are still more than 200,000 displaced people who are living like refugees in hotels.
“Many times, these people do not control what they eat,” Calderon-Margalit said. At hotels, they get the food brought to them rather than cooking it themselves. “This might mean that they are eating more calories than they need and not so healthy foods.”
In addition, food prices have spiked, while many more people are out of work or on reduced incomes, making it harder for people with limited income to make healthful choices, as healthful foods tend to be more expensive, she added.
Barak-Nahum said that there is also an issue of time. While, on the one hand, people may be working less, on the other hand, they are dealing with several factors they may not have been dealing with before. For example, some people are volunteering. In many families, husbands are in the army reserves, leaving their wives to handle all responsibilities. And they might be making shiva calls or hospital visits.
“Operationally, people are busy and may not have the privilege of worrying about themselves,” Barak-Nahum said.The lingering fear of rocket attacks persists in some areas of the country. When the prospect of having to dash to a safe room looms whenever one sits down for a meal, the tradition of gathering around the table may become less commonplace.Barak-Nahum recommended cooking, even if you are not cooking something healthful, because “anything cooked at home will be healthier than something purchased.” She also said it has a positive emotional and mental impact.Calderon-Margalit recommended doing physical activity. She said even 30 minutes of outdoor walking a day could help a person control both his food intake and any creeping mental health issues.
Will the effects of distorted eating go away after the war?
“Eighty percent of people will figure out how to eat well again, and they will return to their regular activity level,” Barak-Nahum said. However, 20% will likely be affected in the longer term. She said gaining too much weight can lead to health issues such as diabetes, high blood pressure, or stroke.
“Twenty percent is not a small percentage,” Barak-Nahum stressed. “This is a serious number, and the country should be thinking about it.”
Toll on the economy
The other place that Israelis are starting to feel the war beyond the battlefield is in their bank accounts.While the 2006 Second Lebanon War and the 2014 Operation Protective Edge hit the economy, these wars were only on one front and were relatively short. Swords of Iron has already lasted over two months, and the end seems nowhere in sight.
According to Prof. Michel Strawczynski, an economist at the Hebrew University and the former director of the Research Department of the Bank of Israel, previous wars cost the country around 0.5% of its GDP. However, he predicted that this war would have a much worse impact.
For perspective, Strawczynski’s early estimate of the reduction of GDP in the last quarter of 2023 is 3.5%, or 15% in annual terms. This can be compared to the second quarter of 2020, when COVID-19 peaked. Then, the country saw a 7% reduction in GDP – 31% annually.
Another critical number is related to unemployment. The Central Bureau of Statistics broadly defined unemployment at 9% in October. Strawczynski said he believes that number is closer to 7% today, as more companies have reopened and people have returned to work. He said his numbers are based on data from the National Insurance Institute on the number of people receiving benefits for being out of work – an additional 4% beyond those receiving support before October 7.
It’s a striking situation, considering that Israel’s economy weathered the pandemic and even came out ahead, with 2020 being an excellent year, 2021 being the best year ever, and 2022 being the second best to 2021 in terms of investments.
What happened between COVID-19 and the war?
The first is that Israel, like the rest of the world, was hit by inflation, explained Ido Kallir, head of the BA program in actuarial studies and BA program in finance at Ono Academic College.
Then came the judicial reform.
“I think we lost the trust of some of the important bodies in the international financial world, and then came the war,” Kallir said.
While the war has a high immediate cost, Kallir explained that Israel and world markets understand how to weather this. What markets do not know how to endure is that “Israel does not know what it wants to do when it grows up. Do we want to fight forever? Do we have a plan?
“I do not think the financial markets trust our leaders to prioritize money and budget correctly,” he said.Strawczynski said he worries that whereas the significant credit rating companies went easy on Israel during judicial reform, if the war drags on long, Israel’s credit rating might be changed.
Both experts also cautioned that the government’s decision to uphold most of its financial coalition agreements could harm the country, too. Strawczynski said he and his colleagues recommended the government delay allocating money toward expenses signed before October 7 but instead change priorities and use all the money to finance the war and civilian expenses associated with war.
This week, the government decided to cut NIS 1 billion from its 2023 allocations, which is insufficient, according to Strawczynski. However, he said the more critical budget is 2024, and decisions about that still need to be made.“We need to repurchase our trust,” Kallir said. “When the credit agencies and VCs [venture capitalists] see that the leadership knows where it wants to go, the money will flow again.”
Strawczynski said it was all a matter of time.
He said if the war ends by the end of the first quarter of 2024, as the Bank of Israel predicted, Israel will still grow around 2% next year. However, if the war drags on for the whole year, growth will be lower, as people will still be in the reserves, tourism will not return, etc.
“If the war continues the whole year, we will probably not grow next year,” Strawczynski said.
On the other hand, if Israel does not achieve its military goals, the country could take even longer to recoup, he said. People from the North and the South will need to return to their homes and regular activities for us to have a positive [economic] scenario
“This means Hamas cannot rule in Gaza, and there cannot be an immediate threat on the northern border.”