The last thing people going through difficult times or in pain want to hear is that they should be patient.
Well, actually, that is the second-to-last thing. The last thing is “calm down.”
Or, as a quote circulating on social media goes, “Never in the history of calming down has anyone calmed down by being told to calm down.”
Likewise, telling people to be patient does not cultivate patience in an impatient person.
And now, as the current war with Iran has already gone on twice as long as the 12 Day War last June, counseling patience to an Israeli public whose lives have been severely disrupted – and who are not known as a particularly patient people – may not seem the most constructive advice.
Yet it is precisely what former National Security Council head Yaakov Amidror, now a fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, counseled during a webinar this week.
Opportunities that may not come again
Amidror argued that Israel is facing opportunities – in Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza – that are unlikely to return in the future.
“Therefore,” he said, “we have to equip ourselves with something we don’t have: patience. Don’t expect quick results because there are no quick results when you are attacking and trying to hit hard a country with 92 million people, which is 60 times bigger than Israel. Nothing happens fast.”
Not only should the nation not expect quick results – victory now – but it should also realize that not every day will bring with it dramatic news of earth-shattering military accomplishments. Which doesn’t mean military objectives aren't being met; they are, but not every one is dramatic.
What is unfolding now is the steady degradation of Iran’s military and governing capabilities, day by day, across areas such as weapons production and missile stockpiles. The effect is cumulative, not visible in a single snapshot.
This steady degradation of capabilities requires time, and two key factors are shaping how much of it Israel has.
The first, of course, is US President Donald Trump. When he declares victory, says that the US mission has been accomplished, and calls for a ceasefire, that will likely mark the end of the war. That reality places a premium on every day that passes before such a declaration – time Israel must use to further degrade Iran’s military capabilities and weaken its governance.
The goal on the military side is to set Iran back so significantly that it will take decades to rebuild and again pose a threat to Israel. On the governance side, the logic is that the weaker the regime becomes, the greater the chance that the Iranian people themselves may bring it down at some point.
But that window is not open-ended. Trump signaled on Monday that events may be approaching a conclusion. In a Truth Social post extending by five days the ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of Iran’s power plants, he wrote – in all capital letters – that the US and Iran have, over the last two days, had “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”
Once Trump declares a ceasefire, Israel will – of course – cease its fire, at least in Iran. That may not necessarily be the case in Lebanon, however, where Israel could shift from a largely defensive posture – preventing Hezbollah attacks on northern communities – to a more offensive one aimed at destroying much of the organization’s military capabilities. For now, with the IDF focused primarily on Iran, it is not operating offensively in Lebanon.
The home front
The second factor shaping the clock is the home front. Here, the instructions to heed Home Front Command directives and take shelter when sirens sound are not only about saving lives – though that is, of course, paramount – but also about sustaining the domestic resilience needed to continue the war.
Had Saturday night’s ballistic missile attacks on Dimona and Arad resulted in dozens of fatalities rather than “only” injuries, the public reaction might have been very different. Some would have demanded an even more forceful response; others might have called for winding down the war, arguing that the returns were diminishing.
Since February 28, fewer than 20 people have been killed by the hundreds of drones and missiles fired at Israel – tragic as each loss is – and this has not led to widespread public opposition.
As Amidror himself acknowledged, Israelis have shown a considerable degree of patience despite the difficulties and disruptions of the current war. One reason is that the number of fatalities has not been overwhelming.
Most Israelis, as polls consistently show, view Iran as an existential threat and understand that this is a rare strategic opportunity to neutralize it. They have also demonstrated a willingness to endure significant disruption for a meaningful period in order to achieve that goal.
That willingness is tied, in part, to casualty levels – and those levels, in turn, are influenced by public discipline. The degree to which people follow Home Front Command directives has helped keep fatalities lower than feared.
The equation is straightforward: The more people heed the directives, the fewer the casualties; the fewer the casualties, the greater the public’s patience. And the greater the patience, the more time the military has to continue degrading Iran as a force capable of threatening the Jewish state.