ByIDAN KWELLER
Updated:

US President Donald Trump’s outline promises an end to the war and a plan to rebuild Gaza. But a series of political and security landmines could bring it down before it even begins.

The Trump agreement includes dozens of steps, but faces major obstacles: disputes over prisoner and hostage releases, international oversight, the future of Hamas, and Gaza’s fate.

Threatening the deal

  • Difficult issues to tackle include the prisoner release, amnesty for Hamas fighters, outside monitoring.
  • There is a rift in Israel on the plan on non-annexation vs. right-wing demands.
  • There is a basic lack of trust could turn the deal into a dead letter.

Trump’s plan offers a clear agenda for the day after in Gaza. Yet history shows that such initiatives have repeatedly failed in the face of political and security challenges. What are the landmines that could blow up the outline before it is implemented?

People hold flags and cutouts of hostages, as hostage families and a women protest group call for the implementation of a U.S. plan to end the war in Gaza and release all hostages, on the day U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet, near the US consulate.
People hold flags and cutouts of hostages, as hostage families and a women protest group call for the implementation of a U.S. plan to end the war in Gaza and release all hostages, on the day U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet, near the US consulate. (credit: REUTERS/SHIR TOREM)

Landmine 1: The prisoner issue

The release of 250 life-sentence inmates and another 1,700 Palestinian detainees is seen in Israel as a severe security concession. Families of terror victims and the political Right are expected to strongly oppose it.

Landmine 2: Amnesty for Hamas terrorists

The proposal for amnesty and free passage for Hamas operatives raises fears that the terror group could re-establish its presence indirectly and continue operating from abroad as it has in the past.

Landmine 3: International oversight

The creation of a “Peace Council” led by Trump and Tony Blair could be met with deep suspicion, especially among Palestinians who view it as a form of external control over Gaza, recalling past US attempts to impose its values on societies unfamiliar with them.

Landmine 4: Gaza’s demilitarization and Hamas’s disarmament

The destruction of Hamas’s infrastructure would be subject to “international observers.” But similar mechanisms have failed before. Who will guarantee that weapons are not hidden?

Landmine 5: Internal political opposition

In Israel: Ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, as well as the Yesha Council, oppose any concessions.

In Ramallah: The Palestinian Authority would see itself weakened and from the outset is unlikely to meet global demands for serious reforms.

Landmine 6: Vague timelines

The plan sets a gradual IDF withdrawal based on Gaza’s demilitarization, but it remains unclear who will determine when that goal has been achieved.

Behind Trump’s tempting language lies a volatile reality: mistrust, domestic pressures, fears of manipulation, and major obstacles to implementation. Without clearing these landmines, the agreement risks remaining nothing more than words on paper, as often happens in negotiations with terror groups.