The Israeli defense establishment was shocked by US President Donald Trump's early cut-off of military aid and is still unclear on what it implies for immediate budgetary and weapons sales issues, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
Some political officials have been trying to downplay the harm to Israel's national security by arguing that ending US military aid and moving to a partnership model was already a large part of the negotiations between the sides about future years.
But in those conversations, the earliest military aid cut-off was expected to be the end of 2028, and possibly even a gradual cut between 2028 and 2038.
The true shock level of the issue was clear from several Israeli defense officials who declared to the Post in real time that they were completely blindsided, as well as the deafening silence from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who still has not really addressed the issue.
But the Post can now report that even days after Trump's announcement, wide uncertainty hovers over the issue.
It is unclear whether a delay in Israeli officials addressing the issue is due to continuous ambiguity emanating from the US - where many American defense officials were also taken by surprise – or because Netanyahu is too embarrassed or busy fighting with Gadi Eisenkot for control of the next Israeli government, bruised relations between Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, or some other issue.
Until Trump, US defense officials, Netanyahu, and Israeli defense officials have clarity about the amounts and the timing contained in the freeze, both US government and private sector officials may take actions on their own to freeze certain weapons transfers or approvals.
They may do so to avoid running afoul of Trump when they do not clearly know his guidelines.
In May 2024, then US president Joe Biden instituted a partial freeze on transferring large 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, and some other weapons.
Some weapons transfers slowed following Trump announcement, Israeli officials say
However, while that partial weapons freeze was officially narrowly tailored, many Israeli officials said unofficially that it had ripple effects across the spectrum of weapons transfers, significantly slowing certain transfers that were not formally frozen.
In some ways, while Israeli officials appreciate Trump's tremendous support of Israel striking Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, with fewer strings attached than under Biden, they are more worried about the future now than in May 2024, because it is unclear that the problem is curable.
In June 2024, the Post learned that then defense minister Yoav Gallant succeeded in convincing the Biden administration to unfreeze many of the restrictions by giving promises about how the specific weapons would or would not be used.
In contrast, with Trump, if he has calculated that continuing military aid is not politically viable, there may be no clear solution.
But in favor of Trump, he has said there is no question that the US will continue to sell Israel the weapons it wants, versus Biden, who in May 2024 had frozen certain weapons, whether via military aid or full purchase price.
In the most optimistic scenario, some Israeli officials still hope Trump will quietly restore some of the military aid over the next two years, but will do it on an ad hoc basis. This would mean he could do less real-time reporting to the public and the US Congress, which he would need to do under a more formal agreement.
Announcement may affect 2023 F-35 deal, potential F-15 purchases
In 2023, Israel, the US government, and Lockheed Martin signed a deal for 25 additional F-35s, to eventually raise the number of aircraft Israel operates from 50 to 75, which would mean a third squadron. Additional steps in that process took place in mid-2024.
Previously, the Post was told the first third-squadron F-35 deliveries would start in 2027.
It is unclear how the loss of potentially up to almost $8 billion in military aid would affect these purchases or the parallel purchases of new F-15 aircraft and other items Israel lacks the capacity to independently produce.
Further, the Post has learned that even after the Trump announcement, there are still no plans to try to rebuild Israel's fighter jet industry, which was closed in failure in the 1980s, and Israeli officials estimate it would take around 10 years to restore.