Poll shows Likud gains, but falls short of gaining majority

A new poll shows that the political system is once again at a dead end.

Opposition head Benjamin Netanyahu at the right-wing rally in Jerusalem after Yamina MK Idit Silman withdrew from the government, April 6, 2022.  (photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)
Opposition head Benjamin Netanyahu at the right-wing rally in Jerusalem after Yamina MK Idit Silman withdrew from the government, April 6, 2022.
(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)

A special poll conducted on Wednesday for Maariv by Menachem Lazar following the resignation of MK Idit Silman (Yamina) from the coalition showed that if elections to the 25th Knesset had taken place today, the political system would reach a deadlock again.

No decision would be made between the blocs, despite a significant strengthening of Likud. Following the resignation of MK Silman, the coalition led by Naftali Bennett in the current Knesset has 60 MKs, the Likud-Religious Zionist-haredi bloc has 54 MKs and the Joint List has six MKs. In the survey, the coalition turned upside down. The Likud-Religious Zionist-haredi bloc climbed to 60 MKs, while the current coalition dropped to 54 MKs, and the Joint List was again left with six MKs.

According to the results, the Likud party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, increased in power, winning 37 seats in the poll compared to 30 today. The Religious Zionists also gained power - from six seats today to nine in the poll. On the other hand, Shas lost two seats for a total of seven in the poll, while United Torah Judaism maintains its status with seven seats.

In the opposing bloc, Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid rose by one seat compared to the current Knesset, receiving 18 seats in the poll. On the other hand, Blue and White led by Bnei Gantz dropped from eight to seven seats, while both Yamina led by Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu lost two seats for a total of five.

  Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a rally in Jerusalem, April 6, 2022 (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM) Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a rally in Jerusalem, April 6, 2022 (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)

Labor, led by Merav Michaeli, dropped from seven to six seats in the poll and Meretz, led by Nitzan Horowitz dropped from six to five. New Hope, led by Gideon Saar, dropped from six to four, and Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, kept its four seats.

Netanyahu and Likud have reason for cautious optimism.  According to the survey, New Hope got four seats, with only 3.4%. If Sa'ar does not pass the percentage, the Netanyahu bloc will have 61 seats. The survey also showed that 42% of the public prefer new elections compared to 39% who prefer the formation of a new government in the current Knesset. Among Netanyahu's voters, the preference is much clearer - 63% prefer new elections compared to 27% who support the formation of a new government without elections. The survey was attended by 506 members of a research panel. The survey was conducted on a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, including both Jews and Arabs. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 4.3%.