Oscars clash 2026: ‘Sinners’ takes on ‘One Battle After Another’

In any case, later in the day on Monday, an edited version of the ceremony will start streaming on Yes VOD, and it will also be broadcast on Yes Movies Drama on March 17 at 9:30 p.m.

It’s ironic that One Battle will likely win, because its main competition is Sinners, the most-nominated film of all time, which is the kind of movie that Oscar voters have been saying they wanted for years: a story of strong Black characters, celebrating Black heritage, and written and directed by a Black director.

It’s also a vampire story, and although it is set in the Mississippi Delta in the 1930s, with gorgeous period sets and costumes, an incredible soundtrack featuring many blues songs, and a plot that illuminates Afro-Caribbean myths, the Academy tends to pass over genre movies, no matter how good they are.

Sure, at times it’s a lot like an episode of True Blood, but it’s suspenseful and uses the horror tropes to tell a story about racism and the Black experience.

In the Best International Feature category, the Norwegian film Sentimental Value by Joachim Trier is expected to take home the prize. It’s a crowd-pleasing and very well-acted drama of a dysfunctional show business family. It was nominated for eight Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Director, and four acting awards, as well as International Feature, a sure sign that the Academy really likes it.

It Was Just an Accident, which is about former Iranian political prisoners who see a man they believe to have been one of their torturers and must decide whether to take revenge, won the Palme d’Or at Cannes this year.

In addition to Best International Feature, it was also nominated for Best Original Screenplay, and one of its co-writers, Mehdi Mahmoudian, was arrested by the Iranian government and detained for over two weeks. It was chosen for Oscar consideration not by the Iranian government but by France, since it has French producers.

Given the background of this movie and its creators’ political engagement against a regime especially brutal toward women and the LGBT community, one might have expected that Oscar voters would rally around it this year, in light of the harsh crackdown on Iranian demonstrators.

But the fact that the movie is not considered a contender in either of its categories tells you all you need to know about the tendency of Hollywood players to ignore what happens in Iran, and that some of them often excuse and sometimes even embrace the Iranian government.

In another interesting development, The Voice of Hind Rajab, a movie by a Tunisian director, Kaouther Ben Hania, that focuses on a Gazan child who is trapped and killed by an Israeli bomb, is also nominated in this category but has never been talked about as a front-runner.

While just last year, the war in Gaza and condemnation of Israel were major issues for the politically committed in Hollywood, now most seem completely uninterested in the Palestinians.

Israel’s selection for this category, The Sea, about a Palestinian boy lost in Tel Aviv, did not make the shortlist, although two other films with Palestinian themes did.

There is one nominated film by an Israeli director, Meyer Levinson-Blount’s Butcher’s Stain, in the Best Live Action Short category.

Here’s a rundown of what’s likely to win in the major categories for those who want to host an Oscar party in their bomb shelter.

I’d love to be proved wrong about this, because I found One Battle After Another unconvincing and tedious from start to finish, but since it won the Producers Guild Award, the Writers Guild Award, multiple Golden Globes, virtually all the critics’ awards, and the BAFTA, it looks unbeatable.

What Sinners has going for it is that it won the Screen Actors Guild Award (SAG) Ensemble and Best Actor awards, and actors make up the largest branch of the Academy.

While there are 10 movies nominated for Best Picture, only the five that also have nominated directors are considered contenders.

This year, the movies with Best Picture and Best Director nods, in addition to One Battle and Sinners, are Sentimental Value; Hamnet, about Shakespeare’s wife; and Marty Supreme, the story of a brash Jewish table-tennis hustler. But none of these have the support that One Battle and Sinners do.

Paul Thomas Anderson has been making acclaimed movies, such as There Will Be Blood, Boogie Nights, and Magnolia, for almost 30 years and has been nominated 11 times before without a win. He seems to be unbeatable here, although it seems ironic that he will win the biggest prizes for his worst film.

Jessie Buckley wails and stomps her way through Hamnet, a drama directed by a previous Oscar winner, Chloe Zhao, about Shakespeare’s wife, who is portrayed as a wild, free spirit who communes with nature. Buckley has some big crying scenes after she loses a child, and this is the kind of role you win Oscars for.

No one else really has a chance, although Emma Stone, who is nominated for Bugonia, has already won two Oscars and is obviously adored by the voters.

The best performance was unquestionably by Renate Reinsve, who was riveting in Sentimental Value, but her character wasn’t conventionally likable, so she won’t win. That’s how it works.

This is the most competitive category. Until a couple of weeks ago, Timothee Chalamet was the front-runner for the obsessed title character in Marty Supreme.

But he spoke brashly about his ambition at an awards ceremony and made a statement about how he was afraid movies would become irrelevant to all but the elite, like opera and ballet, and Oscar voters who have probably not gone to an opera for decades savaged him.

That made room for Michael B. Jordan, a true movie star who plays twins in Sinners, to move up. Jordan is an incredible actor, who first made an impression over 20 years ago as Wallace in the first season of The Wire and has gone on to star in the Creed movies. Chalamet, who should have won last year for A Complete Unknown, the Bob Dylan biopic, will have other chances.

It’s unusual for an acting award to go to someone in a horror movie, but just as Jordan looks likely to overcome that bias, so will Amy Madigan, for her creepy turn in Weapons. Teyana Taylor, who was undeniably a sexy scene stealer in One Battle After Another, provides Madigan’s main competition.

Hollywood has always loved Sean Penn, and he’s already won two Best Actor Oscars.

He has also won many other awards for his performance as a vile white supremacist in One Battle After Another. A supporting actor statuette would make him the Jack Nicholson of his generation.

Delroy Lindo, a great character actor, has been around for a while and has never been nominated before and was a standout in Sinners. But it’s Stellan Skarsgard as the charming, egomaniac dad in Sentimental Value who really ought to win.

Paul Thomas Anderson has drawn widespread praise for his loose adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland and has been nominated many times for his screenplays but has been passed over.

This is the one award that seems to belong to Ryan Coogler, the writer/director of Sinners, who has earned a lot of critical praise and money with his blockbuster Black Panther movies in the past.

Although several politically engaged movies are nominated, this is the rare time in recent years when the Oscars will reward a European family/showbiz drama with great acting in this category. Its only real competition is Brazil’s entry, The Secret Agent, a gritty drama about political corruption.

The Perfect Neighbor, a gripping film about crime and race, made up mainly of police bodycam footage, will likely win over its main competitor, Mr. Nobody Against Putin.