Hot off the Arab press 470993

CHOOSING DIPLOMACY OVER WAR

Al-Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 16

Prior to his first visit to China in 1972, US President Richard Nixon sat in the Oval Office and made a list with three columns: What does the US want? What does China want? What do both of them want? It was these three questions, particularly the last one, which guided his foreign policy on China. Not so long ago, the US administration seemed to have followed a similar strategy when dealing with the situation in the Middle East. The White House’s Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, repeatedly asked his aides to draw simple Venn diagrams.

“Where the circles overlap,” he would tell them, “is where our policy should stand.” This was particularly effective when having to deal with India and Pakistan.

Both countries held competing interests – and visions – on the future of their neighbor, Afghanistan. Both conducted proxy wars there. Yet Holbrooke succeeded in convincing both governments that their interest is to collaborate against the rise of radical Islamist fighters in Afghanistan. To do so, they would each have to soften their stances. Unfortunately, Holbrooke died an unexpected death at the peak of this diplomatic effort, leading to its collapse. However, there are important lessons to be learned from his lifelong career. The most important one is how to find overlapping interests in today’s messy Middle East. In a region divided by sectarian lines, finding peaceful ways to bring opponents to the negotiating table is the key for the stability of the region. Holbrooke was successful since he truly believed that good diplomacy prevents war. Perhaps it is time to give his method a try.

– Hussein al-Mustafa

IN MOSUL, ISIS HAS FALLEN

Al-Sharq al-Awsat, London, October 19

When former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki took office in September 2014, he had a very clear vision on how to establish his authority: by terrorizing and intimidating Sunni militias that opposed his regime and by removing his political enemies from power. It only took a few weeks, when Mosul fell to the hands of ISIS, to reveal how inept al-Maliki was.

He established an army with incapable commanders.

He surrounded himself with incompetent advisors.

In his struggle for personal survival, he neglected the well-being of his nation. Iran immediately celebrated this achievement. It portrayed the fall of Mosul as a well-orchestrated Iranian operation. General Qassem Soleimani of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was portrayed as a fearless military visionary. In reality, however, the fall of Mosul was more symbolic of Iraqi incompetence than it was of Iranian expertise.

This week – two years later – Iraqi forces, backed by the US troops, have begun their operation to liberate the city. With significant assistance of warplanes, the ISIS-controlled city has already been besieged and prepared for the final offense. ISIS stands no chance against the Iraqi, American, and Turkish forces that are coming from them. The city will be taken over.

And finally, with its liberation, the false narratives and legends surrounding Iran and the Islamic State will finally come to an end. ISIS has no clear strategy and it is quickly losing its power. As long as its leaders do not succumb to narrow sectarian interests, Iraq has a chance to defeat ISIS.

– Abd al-Rahman al-Rashed

A DOUBLE STANDARD ON THE WAR IN YEMEN

Al-Bayan, UAE, October 17

Earlier this month, an attack on a funeral ceremony in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa killed over 100 mourners.

Authorities in Riyadh were quick to announce the launching of investigation together with the United States to understand the source of the attack. This week the Saudi Ministry of Defense issued a new statement, clarifying that while the investigation is still ongoing, there are reasons to believe that the explosion was not the result of Saudi bombing. What are the other possible explanations for this attack then? The first is that this attack was some sort of Houthi conspiracy, meant to delegitimize the Saudi-led coalition operating in Yemen by exerting international pressure against Riyadh. The second possibility is that one of the terrorist groups active in Yemen, such as al-Qaida, carried out the attack and is yet to claim responsibility.

In the meantime, Saudi Arabia is facing enormous pressure to stop its activity in neighboring Yemen. What is interesting to note is that while Russia indiscriminately bombs targets in Syria and Iraq, killing dozens of citizens and displacing hundreds others, the world remains silent. When the United States flies drones above the Middle East and kills innocent women and children, not a single inquiry is launched. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is repeatedly placed under scrutiny and inspection, blamed even for actions it did not take. Perhaps the international community is trying to overcompensate for its own immoral actions around the world by holding Riyadh accountable to a higher standard. Whatever the reason might be, the operation in Yemen is a matter of Saudi national security. Riyadh cannot afford to cease its operation now, nor will it do so. The bombing of the funeral is a tragedy, but the international community will have to patiently wait.

– Mashri al-Zaidi

What Egypt neds right now

Al-Shorouk, Egypt, October 16

From time to time I meet with political experts to discuss the current state of affairs of our country and gain some insight as to where Egypt is headed next.

This week, during one such meeting, my interlocutor stared at me and explained: “even if 100% of the Egyptian people pray for our country’s future, we would still need a miracle to escape our grim reality.” This expert might not be exaggerating. The levels of incompetency and ignorance among government workers are unprecedented. What President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi needs is a skillful administration that can steer the country towards stability. Our current government, however, seems like a joke. Reform must begin with education. Youth should not be on the streets but at schools. Crime should be fought and mitigated. There is no future for our country without the guarantee that we can raise a talented and educated younger generation. Then we ought to focus on politics. After so many years of conflict and strife, Egyptians today need national consensus. President al-Sisi must be wise and find creative ways to unite our people around his vision. To do so, he must be pragmatic and foster a political dialogue in which all fractions of Egyptian society are represented. Finally, our economy must be revitalized. Egyptian remittances from abroad have significantly declines, and foreign investment nearly disappeared. We must establish new industries and sectors. We must train skillful laborers. We must establish new trade agreements with our partners around the world. All of these are not easy to do, but they are necessary.

– Emad Addin Hussein

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