During the first four months of his second tenure, US President Donald Trump was focused on the Middle East. His administration began with a ceasefire deal that brought Israeli hostages home and temporary peace to Gaza.
That ceasefire ended in March. Trump has also focused on the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen and a possible Iran deal.
Now, the White House is turning its attention to Los Angeles and the clashes currently taking place there.
Trump deployed the US National Guard to Los Angeles on Sunday. This is significant. Clashes in Los Angeles appear to be spreading as rioters set cars on fire and throw rocks at police vehicles.
It is unclear whether tensions can be alleviated. This is becoming a political battle for the US administration. Trump has many opponents, specifically in California. Democrats there have been opposing his policies.
What set off the clashes had to do with concerns regarding Trump’s immigration policy and crackdown on migrants.
This is one of the battles the administration has wanted to win. It has attempted to accomplish a great deal through executive orders since taking office. The US administration has sought to close various parts of the federal government, such as USAID and other offices.
It has also sought to increase deportations. Further, it has been targeting international students for alleged antisemitism. In addition, the White House has battled with universities such as Harvard.
Many of its initiatives have seen pushback from the courts. In California, the administration is at odds with the governor and local politicians. Still, it has thirty days to utilize the National Guard and other federal agencies to address the crisis.
Trump's doctrine is now focused on making 'America Great Again'
As the administration approaches its six-month mark in office, it aims to implement its doctrine. The Trump doctrine in relation to the US itself is focused on various agendas that tie into the notion of: “Make America great again.”
From immigration to tariffs to confronting the phenomenon of transgender athletes, the administration is on a full-court press. However, this expenditure of domestic capital means Trump has less time to focus on the Middle East.
The administration has already rolled out a doctrine for the Middle East. It sent Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, to hammer out a Gaza ceasefire in January. Then it sent him to deal with Russia on a possible Ukraine deal.
Witkoff was also tasked with holding talks, which began in Oman, with Iran. Those talks have gone through five rounds. However, these negotiations have yet to result in any official statement.
Trump, in short, does not have wins in Ukraine, Iran, or another ceasefire in Gaza. Trump did get back the last living American hostage from Gaza, Eden Alexander. This was important. However, there is more to be done. There are at least 55 hostages in Gaza, around half of whom are thought to be alive.
The one major win for the administration has been on Syria policy. Trump met Syria’s president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Riyadh during his trip to the region in May.
Trump then appointed Tom Barrack as his new envoy to Syria. Barrack has moved quickly to accomplish many things. He has traveled to Syria and raised the flag over the ambassador’s residence. He has also gone to Israel and other countries.
The question now remains whether the Los Angeles crisis will distract the administration and cause it to be less focused on the Middle East.
Foreign policy is one place where the president has executive authority. It is one area where the president can achieve wins when he is not making significant progress on domestic policy or when he has domestic challenges.
However, the administration has wanted a clash over immigration because it believes this is a winning policy at home. Most Americans do not like seeing rioters in the streets waving Mexican flags and burning cars.
The White House wants to gamble that using a heavy hand here will pay off over the next year and into the midterms. Therefore, it may have found a silver bullet on domestic policy. This is important because it helps distract from Trump’s public clashes with Elon Musk and discussions over recent bills in Congress.
For the Middle East, the question has to be whether the Trump doctrine in the region is now slowing down. It was at a rapid pace in the first months. The administration bombed Yemen and then stopped the campaign.
The US appears to have gotten a sort of win in Yemen because the Houthis stopped attacking ships. What remains now is the Gaza crisis and the Iran deal.
There are other issues, such as Syria and the US troops there, as well as Iraq and the work that the US has done to free Princeton researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who was kidnapped by an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq in 2003.
Other topics of interest include arms deals with the Gulf and the potential for an Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal. Additionally, there is Lebanon and the fate of UNIFIL to consider.
With so much going on, the administration cannot afford to look away. But it could easily be less focused on the Middle East for the following months.