The Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah is increasingly facing a crossroads. More than six months after it agreed to a ceasefire with Israel in November 2024, it has seen itself continually weakened in Lebanon. It faces not only continued Israeli airstrikes but also political pressure in its host country.
This is unprecedented. The terrorist group is facing calls to disarm. Hezbollah was always able to get around these calls over the years by claiming it was “resisting” Israel.
However, the Iranian “axis of resistance” is now broken up and weakened as well.
Syria’s Assad regime fell in December 2024, partly as a result of Hezbollah’s drubbing in the war with the Jewish state.
Iran was also just handed a defeat this month, in a 12-day war with Israel. What is left for the “Hezbollah friends and allies” club?
Hamas is weakened. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad group is also not very strong and has lost its headquarters in Damascus.
The Houthis are far away in Yemen. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are still strong but also encircled.
Hezbollah kept its weapons in the past by getting around various peace deals and ceasefires.
For instance, when the Saudis helped end the Lebanese Civil War in 1989 at meetings in Taif, the terrorist group kept its weapons and grew stronger as a result. While other factions put down arms, such as the Christian militias, Hezbollah stockpiled.
After Israel left Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah grew even more assertive. It attacked Israel in 2006 – and even though UN Resolution 1701 was supposed to see the group withdraw from southern Lebanon, it instead grew exponentially stronger from 2007 to 2023.
In 2008, for instance, Hezbollah attacked opponents in Beirut. Later, it prevented a new Lebanese president from being elected. It came to control Lebanon’s military and foreign policy and also its politics. And it intervened in Syria in 2012.
Now, Hezbollah is weaker. Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem stressed this weekend that the “resistance” will not accept continued Israeli aggression against Lebanon, affirming that the resistance is ready to confront the enemy, according to pro-Hezbollah Al-Akhbar media in Lebanon.
“Is there anyone with a mind and the right mindset who can eliminate their own strengths while Israel fails to implement the agreement and continues its attacks?” Hezbollah asked. Qassem is now complaining that Lebanon is not defending Hezbollah from Israel. “Do you imagine we will remain silent forever? That’s not true. You have tested us. When we are given a choice, we have only one option: dignity,” its leader says.
Hezbollah blames US, Israel for its predicament
Hezbollah is putting on a brave face, claiming that it will endure and that the era of American hegemony in the Middle East will pass. It clearly blames the US and Israel for its predicament.
The terrorist group is also under pressure from other parties in Lebanon.
Walid Jumblatt, the powerful Druze leader, has said his party will hand over its weapons to the state. The message is that Hezbollah must hand over its own arms as well. In the past, it has refused to do so; a turning point may now be coming.