Four days of clashes in the Druze city of Sweida have now reached a possible turning point. There were attempts to reach a ceasefire in Suwayda on Tuesday. However, the continued clashes and videos of Druze being abused – and killed in fighting – are leading to a possible spillover.
This is because Israel has chosen to also intervene and try to deter the attacks on the Druze. This is leading to condemnation of Israel from regional countries and concerns that go far beyond Syria.
The Sweida clashes were predictable. They are at least the third clashes of their kind since the fall of the Assad regime. The reasons for the clashes are complex. They usually begin due to local reasons, with armed Druze men clashing with other armed groups, such as Bedouin tribes. This leads to government intervention.
The Syrian government doesn’t want an autonomous Druze region with armed militias in southern Syria. The Druze interpret this as suppression of their community. Many Sunni Arabs in Syria who back the government see the Druze as a possible threat to stability in southern Syria. Religious extremists also exploit this.
Israel has vowed to support the Druze. However, this is easier said than done. Druze in Israel have been protesting, and some have sought to enter Syria. Scenes overnight and on Wednesday showed some Druze men entering and leaving Syria.
Currently, this is leading to a crisis and escalation on the border, where Israel has had to reinforce the IDF units.
Since the fall of Assad, Israeli forces have operated inside Syria, particularly on Mount Hermon and also along the buffer zone. This has put Israel in direct contact with Syrian villagers. In addition, the IDF has carried out at least two raids against Iranian-backed cells operating close to the border.
All of that points to the possibility of a spillover. Israel has managed the Syrian conflict for the past decade and a half since it began in 2011. Sometimes, there have been clashes along the border. For instance, Druze men lynched two Syrians who were being brought to hospital in 2015.
The Druze believed the Syrians were members of extremist groups in Syria. At the time, Israel was providing medical aid to Syrians on the border.
The Druze in the Golan, who are Israeli citizens for the most part, but also Syrian citizens, support their comrades on the other side of the border. For instance, in Majdal Shams people can see the Druze village of Khader in Syria. When Khader was threatened by Syrian rebels in 2014-2015, it caused concern in the Golan.
Druze in Syria generally sided with the Assad regime during the war. After the fall of the regime, they have sought more autonomy. Israel has supported this.
Israeli threats to target Ahmed al-Sharaa
The other aspect of spillover is connected to the Israeli threats to target Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Syrian president. The US would like to prevent this, and United States Special Envoy Tom Barrack has put out a statement and message. However, it will take more than messages to calm the situation. In addition, the images of Druze seeking to enter Syria from Israel could lead to clashes.
The IDF said on Wednesday that “a short while ago, IDF troops identified dozens of suspects attempting to infiltrate Israeli territory from the area of Hader, Quneitra Governorate, in Syria. IDF and Israeli Border Police forces are operating to prevent the infiltration and disperse the gathering.”
The report also said, “simultaneously, several Israeli civilians crossed the border fence into Syrian territory in the area of Majdal Shams. IDF troops are currently operating to safely return the civilians who crossed the border. The IDF emphasizes that this is a serious incident constituting a criminal offense and endangers the public and IDF troops.”
Israel’s challenge is to decide whether it prefers more escalation in Syria or wants to find a way to climb down from the incidents.
The Jewish state’s leadership has appeared to prefer more escalation. The question is whether air strikes can actually solve issues in Sweida.
Having Druze men crossing the border into Syria is not a solution for what is happening there. While it is understandable that Druze in Israel care about their comrades, having the border area become a complete chaos is in no one’s interest.
Israel has said that it wants southern Syria demilitarized. This has resulted in a power vacuum in southern Syria. This means that armed groups, such as the Druze militias in Sweida, have a lot of sway.
The Syrian government then relies on its own forces to fight the Druze, but its forces are themselves barely more than armed militias because the Syrian government has not trained enough troops since coming to power. Assad’s army was an empty shell, and there are simply not enough formal military and security units.
As such, the Syrian government also appears to rely on the mobilization of armed men, similar to a levee where men are randomly called to the flag to fight. However, relying on a rabble of armed men, who may or may not be trained to a standard or may be affiliated with extremist groups, has the effect of creating a cycle of violence.
The Druze fear attacks by extremists. In turn, they ambush the government forces who enter Suwayda. Israel then carries out airstrikes, and the cycle repeats itself.
Now that more than three days of clashes have taken place, it may be more difficult to put the genie back into the bottle. Syria faces a crossroads in Sweida. It must contain the violence and find a way forward, or the crisis will grow.