Almost a year after Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut – something many believed Jerusalem would never dare to do - it set out on Tuesday to kill Hamas’ leadership in Doha. That, too, was something many thought Israel would never risk.
The strike gives substance to a mantra repeated time and again by Israel’s political and military leaders: Israel’s long arm will reach all those who plot to and murder Israelis.
Skeptics always qualified that statement: “Sure - unless they live, as Hamas leaders have for years, openly and defiantly in Doha.”
If Israel before October 7 was trapped in a conceptzia (flawed assumption) that Hamas would never carry out the type of large-scale assault it ultimately did, Hamas was equally caught in its own illusion: that Qatar would always be a safe haven.
Why did they believe this? Because of Qatar’s ties with Israel. Because of its standing in the West. Because of its importance to the region. Because of its close alliance with Washington, which maintains its largest Middle East base there. Because of its central role in mediating between Israel and Hamas.
Israel’s decision to strike in the heart of Doha, nearly two years after the war began, signals several realities.
First, it shows that negotiations over the hostages - in which Qatar has played a leading role - were at a dead end.
According to an Army Radio report, Israel decided to assassinate Nasrallah last September once it became clear that efforts to broker a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon were doomed to fail. Israel therefore took him out – a stunning blow that came just 10 days after the beeper attack and effectively decapitated Hezbollah.
Now, with Hamas leaders targeted in Doha just as discussions over a new US hostage proposal were advancing, the message is clear: Jerusalem – and likely Washington, which had to give its tacit consent for such an operation – concluded that these negotiations, too, were going nowhere.
On Sunday, US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Israel had accepted the terms of his new proposal and that Hamas should follow suit. “I have warned Hamas about the consequences of not accepting,” he wrote. “This is my last warning. There will not be another.”
Israel would not have carried out such a dramatic strike without a green light from Washington. Its planes could not have entered Doha’s airspace without US forces stationed there detecting them – which means this operation was very likely one of the consequences Trump had in mind when he issued that warning.
The fact that the US did not prevent the attack is also a message to Qatar. For years, Doha has played a duplicitous game with remarkable skill: cultivating the West by investing billions worldwide, while at the same time hosting Hamas and backing it financially and diplomatically. That game may now be over.
If Hamas is the octopus, then Qatar has been the reef where it camouflaged itself – hiding in plain sight while extending its reach. The reef provided safety, legitimacy, and protection even as the tentacles lashed out and murdered scores of Israelis.
By striking in Doha, Israel showed it will no longer be put off by the camouflage. It was a warning not only to Hamas – that there is no sanctuary – but also to Qatar: if you provide the reef, don’t be surprised when others are willing to shatter it to strike at what lurks inside.
There is, to be sure, no small measure of satisfaction in this operation – Israel once again demonstrating to friend and foe alike the extent of its reach.
But that satisfaction is tempered by deep concern over the hostages and what impact this will have on their fate. Nevertheless, only those who ascribe the most cynical motives to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will argue that the strike showed he does not care about them.
On the contrary, he acted because nothing else was moving Hamas. Perhaps this will.