The world is utterly lost about what is going on in Gaza and whether the war ended or keeps being on the verge of restarting.
Israel has fought two quick-and-done rounds with Hamas since it paused its larger invasion on October 4 and ultimately agreed to a ceasefire.
Although the IDF increased the lethality of its response in the second round on Wednesday, Israel is still clearly remaining committed to the ceasefire in general terms and to avoiding another large-scale invasion of Gaza.
How is it clear that the IDF is trying to stick to the ceasefire even though it has twice hit Hamas hard?
Because of what it has not done.
And because of what Hamas has not done.
What was and wasn't struck in last IDF's Gaza raids
The first round came in the early days of the ceasefire when the IDF inadvertently bumped into Hamas fighters who were hiding in a tunnel in a part of Gaza controlled by the military and where the IDF had authority to explore and destroy, even during the ceasefire.
The local Hamas forces, with no higher-up commander, instead of trying to surrender when they saw IDF forces coming toward them, ambushed the soldiers, killing two of them.
The air force then bombed dozens of low-value targets throughout Gaza.
Formally speaking, Hamas did violate the ceasefire. It attacked Israeli soldiers.
On the other hand, the soldiers were actively entering and cleaning out new tunnels.
If Israel had observed the ceasefire by merely holding onto its defensive positions and not actively pursuing exploring and destroying new tunnels until more of the framework for this new era was clear, there probably would have been no incident.
Taking this into account, none of the dozens of Israeli targets that the IDF struck after that first incident involved either mid-level or senior Hamas commanders.
In contrast, the second round of IDF strikes, which took place on Wednesday, was fewer in number but greater in lethality and harmed Hamas at a higher level.
Over 20 Hamas mid-level commanders and a few commanders at the bottom of the senior level were killed.
Israel’s message was that since Hamas started another round of incidents, even after the IDF had struck dozens of low-value targets after the earlier incident, it will continue to escalate against the Gazan terror group on a step-by-step basis until Hamas falls in line.
This more aggressive approach on Wednesday also made sense because the two Hamas attacks on IDF forces this time were more clearly coordinated and planned by Hamas commanders. This was in contrast to the first incident that came out of some local low-down Hamas forces deciding under pressure and on the fly.
And yet Israel still did not kill any brigade commanders (of which there are only five at most) or Hamas ruling council members.
Most of the commanders it killed were only mid-level company commanders (of which there could be more than 100) and only a few battalion commanders (of which there were 24 at the start of the war).
There was no major new Israeli invasion to take new territory, and not much happened with the ground forces at all.
Also, in both instances, Israel suddenly ratcheted up the attacks and then immediately stopped, returning to a full ceasefire.
Likewise, Hamas has not been firing rockets. It also has not staged any major invasions of Israeli bases, something it successfully pulled off twice in recent months.
Rather, its purpose in attacking the IDF a second time seemed to either be to keep the IDF away from a specific spot or just to make Israel pay a cost for currently remaining in control of large portions of Gaza.
There still may be more rounds of gunfire and bombing. And if there are, some of them may even be greater escalations than what we have seen so far.
But both Israel and Hamas are clearly trying to pressure the other side, while meticulously trying not to do anything that would fully end the ceasefire.
Whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants this situation or has been locked into this situation by a mix of the Israeli defense establishment and US President Donald Trump is secondary to the result that the ceasefire – in broad terms – has held now for almost a month, and is likely to continue.