Lebanon is facing a crucial test. As US-Iran tensions grow, the Lebanese government is concerned that Hezbollah could drag Beirut into yet another destructive war. Reports indicate that Israel has made it clear that Hezbollah’s intervention will not be tolerated, and repercussions could be severe.
Al-Ain media in the UAE noted that there are many moving parts to the equation in Lebanon, which include “sectarian complexities, Hezbollah’s regional calculations, and the risk of a wider confrontation erupting between Iran and Israel are all factors that could reshuffle the cards.”
Al-Ain’s report says that in recent weeks, “Lebanon has witnessed unprecedented diplomatic and political activity that has placed the issue of disarming Hezbollah at the top of the priorities.”
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam recently visited southern Lebanon, thus indicating that the government is serious about dealing with Hezbollah. Nevertheless, there is little evidence is that Beirut has made strides in disarming Hezbollah.
Hezbollah's unprecedented period of weakness
Additionally, Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander-in-Chief Gen. Rodolphe Hayka recently flew to the US for meetings with US Central Command and officials, who praised LAF.
Beirut is hinting that it wants to move to the next phase in disarming Hezbollah, by dealing with the terror organization’s facilities north of the Litani River. However, it is unclear whether it has actually dealt with them south of the river.
What is Al-Ain saying that may reflect some of the discussion in the Arab world?
“While Western pressure is mounting to end any military presence outside the framework of the state, official visits and parliamentary moves continue, indicating a clear international will to support the Lebanese army in restoring its exclusive role in defending national sovereignty,” the report says. Hezbollah is “bleeding,” it adds.
The report also mentions the Lebanese army chief’s visit to the US as well as the visit of France’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot to Lebanon.
“In a move reflecting a clear governmental will, the Lebanese army presented in mid-February a comprehensive five-stage plan to disarm Hezbollah, requesting a four-month extension, which could be extended to eight months, to complete the second stage, which includes the area between the Litani and Awali rivers.”
How much of the plan has actually been accomplished?
Al-Ain claims, as noted above, that the army had announced in January the “completion of the first phase and the achievement of operational control south of the Litani River, despite continued Israeli skepticism.”
Hezbollah continues to reject the government’s actions. It appears to think it can raise a new generation of operatives. Reports also indicate that Iran’s IRGC has a lot of say in what Hezbollah might do next. Since the ceasefire in November 2024 between Israel and Lebanon, Hezbollah has not struck Israel. It is not clear how much of a rocket arsenal it still has.
Al-Ain also reports that “despite the escalating rhetoric, Hezbollah is experiencing an unprecedented period of weakness. The Israeli campaign in the fall of 2014 inflicted heavy losses on its military infrastructure, and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria severed its main supply lines.
“Meanwhile, the ongoing Israeli raids have prevented the party from reorganizing, with more than 400 members killed since the ceasefire.”
Al-Ain claims that Hezbollah retains “approximately 25,000 missiles north of the Litani River” and that the transfer “of most of its capabilities to remote areas reflects a defensive orientation rather than a readiness for a large-scale offensive adventure.”
Will the Lebanese army actually confront Hezbollah?
The report claims that the disarmament issue “intersects with escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran, while Israeli media outlets have reported a state of alert on the northern border.”
This illustrates the continued dilemma in Lebanon. The fact is that Lebanon is not willing to step up and do the heavy lifting that is necessary. It continues to hope if it just waits long enough, everyone will forget its commitment to disarming Hezbollah.
It also thinks it can say that it disarmed the group and basically have others accept the statement. Where is the evidence of disarmament? If Hezbollah still has a major arsenal north of the Litani, then this will need to be dismantled.