The current Iran conflict may create an opportunity for Israel to draw closer to its neighbors, including some that have so far turned their backs on normalization, Ohad Merlin, Middle East expert at MIND Israel, told The Jerusalem Post.
“The current campaign, in which it appears that Iran has completely lost control and begun firing in all directions, could serve as a significant platform for strengthening relations between Israel and its neighbors,” he explained.
“This serves as clear proof that their [the neighboring countries’] policy of containment toward Iran has failed, and there may be an opportunity here to reverse narratives. Iran is now perceived as the destabilizing force, after two years in which it was fashionable to blame Israel in the Gulf.”
Indeed, Merlin said we are seeing firmer positions from Gulf states: The United Arab Emirates closed its embassy in Tehran; Qatar announced that it struck in Iran and shot down fighter jets; Saudi Arabia claims it is warming up for war; Kuwait summoned the Iranian ambassador for a reprimand; and even Oman condemned the attacks (though not Iran itself).
Nevertheless, he stressed that “caution is necessary.”
“These countries are also very fearful of Israeli hegemony,” he explained. “From their perspective, an Israeli hegemon is almost as concerning as – if not more than – an Iranian hegemon.
“Many in the Arab world still live in a conspiratorial universe of The Protocols of the Elders of Zion and believe that Israel’s goal is to control the entire world, and so on. There are very significant forces in the Middle East and in the West, most of them identified with Iran and some with Qatar, working to entrench the tired narrative that ‘the Jew is to blame.’ In this case, the accusation is that Israel dragged the United States into war and that any harm to Gulf states stems from Israel’s fault.”
There is also a historic Sunni-Shi’ite struggle that is unrelated in many ways to Israel. Merlin advised that Israel allow this to continue without taking sides.
Israel can aid Gulf states with defense and emergency expertise
This does not mean, however, that Israel cannot offer assistance. In fact, Merlin believes Israel should offer assistance, whether directly or through indirect channels. He also pointed out that Israel has significant expertise not only in air defense but also in emergency management and in building community resilience, which may benefit countries unaccustomed to wars.
Israeli media reported on Sunday that, at the request of the United Arab Emirates government, an Israeli Home Front Command officer was sent to Abu Dhabi to provide guidance on improving public access to lifesaving emergency information.
“Israel should offer to help with the various fields in which it excels, even share intelligence information, extend a helping hand, and hope that down the road this will lead to some warming of relations,” Merlin told the Post.
The most positive outcome that could emerge is a Gulf understanding of the Iranian threat to them as well, not only to Israel, he added.
“They constantly tried to reassure Iran that they would not allow the use of American bases on their soil and worked continuously through diplomatic channels to avoid war, and all of that blew up in their faces the moment Iran began firing at them,” he said.
The negative outcome, as mentioned, is the “seepage of a narrative that blames Israel for all the ills of the Middle East.”
This could, in turn, negatively impact the Abraham Accords. “We see that the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain took the heaviest fire from Iran – precisely the two countries that signed the Abraham Accords – and this appears to be an attempt to deter others from joining in the future,” Merlin explained.
Regarding Qatar, he said that there is unlikely to be any significant change in the foreseeable future. Much of the reason for this is that Qatar’s closeness to Hamas is ideological, as part of the Muslim Brotherhood camp.
“Countries that become more anti-Iranian will not necessarily suddenly become pro-Israel, because the reality that once connected us before October 7 has changed beyond recognition,” he said, concluding that the Gulf states are “not likely” to be joining the Abraham Accords for the time being.