As the American-Israeli military campaign pounds Iran, Israel’s smaller adversary in Gaza is relatively quiet—for now—but will remain a thorn in Israel’s side, waiting for the war to end.
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More than two years into the conflict, Israel has yet to conclude its campaign against the Gaza-based terrorist organization Hamas. A fragile ceasefire has been in place since October 2025. Though sporadic violence continues, the truce has largely held, and the next phase of the agreement is already under discussion.
“Israel hasn’t finished with Gaza,” Dr. Sagit Yehoshua, a member of the Dvora Forum and the International Institute for Counterterrorism at Reichman University, told The Media Line.
“With the attention elsewhere, Hamas now has the time to regroup. Hamas, like other Iranian proxies, has been trained to emulate the Iranian regime, and even when senior leadership members are taken out, there is always someone ready to replace them.”
For years, Hamas has been funded and backed by Iran. “At the end of the war with Iran, Israel will find itself at square one again in Gaza,” Dr. Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, told The Media Line.
Kobi Michael, a political analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, told The Media Line that the outcome of the Iran war could still reshape the Gaza front.
“If the campaign in Iran is ended successfully … Iran will be much weaker, and Iran will not be able to continue supporting Hamas and Hezbollah,” he said. “Then it will change the entire situation in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon dramatically.”
Now the spotlight has shifted to Israel’s war against the regime in Tehran, fought alongside the United States. For many Israelis, that confrontation is the culmination of the war that began in October 2023, when Hamas launched its surprise offensive and triggered a regional chain reaction.
Over the past two years, Israeli military and intelligence forces have targeted enemies across Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran.
Still, Gaza remains unresolved. The ceasefire agreement, which calls for Hamas to disarm and Israeli forces to withdraw fully, looked unrealistic even before Israeli jets began striking Iran last week. Michael described Gaza as frozen in military and political limbo.
'A sort of status quo'
“When it comes to the Gaza Strip, actually, we are in a sort of status quo,” he said. “There is no progress with regard to the Palestinian technocratic government, because the technocratic government is not in the Gaza Strip yet. … Hamas does not allow the technocratic government to enter.”
Officials in Jerusalem have said that if Hamas does not disarm voluntarily, Israel will send troops back in to finish the job. Hamas, for its part, says Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire and is inching farther into Gaza rather than withdrawing.
According to Michael, Israeli forces have continued striking Hamas targets despite the truce. “The IDF continues on a daily basis to destroy all the terror infrastructure … tunnels … places that were used for manufacturing weapons and rockets,” he said. When Hamas breaches the ceasefire, he added, Israel responds forcefully: “This is to signal to Hamas that if they continue breaching the agreement, they will pay a price.”
President Donald Trump, who has invested much of his prestige in ending the war between Israel and Hamas, may soon demand payment on that political debt.
“Israel will likely see even greater enforcement of the agreement by Trump,” Milstein said. “Israel already started doing things it didn’t want to do in Gaza, but as a result of Trump’s desires. Israel would rather resume the fighting.”
That pressure is already visible on the humanitarian front. Israel had opened the Rafah Crossing after initially stalling, under mounting international and American pressure to allow more aid into Gaza.
But Rafah was shut again after the Iran war intensified, halting medical evacuations and civilian departures. In response to a request for information from The Media Line, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, the Israeli military body responsible for coordinating aid entry into Gaza, said the crossing is closed because of the war with Iran and “will reopen as soon as the security situation allows.”
Aid is still entering, but only in part. Kerem Shalom, Gaza’s main crossing for humanitarian cargo, has reopened gradually. Humanitarian agencies say roughly 200 to 250 trucks are entering daily, far below the approximately 600 trucks per day that UN agencies say are needed for Gaza’s population. The World Health Organization has warned that hospitals face critical shortages of trauma supplies, medicines, and fuel.
Yehoshua said President Trump’s postwar priorities could intensify the squeeze on Israel. “When Trump wants something, he wants it immediately and doesn’t stop at any means,” she said. “After the war in Iran, Trump might also be even more considerate than before of the needs of his Arab partners.”
That matters beyond Gaza. Israel’s relations with Arab and Gulf states have long been sensitive to the Palestinian issue. Normalization with Saudi Arabia, coveted by both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump as part of a new regional architecture, has long depended on progress with the Palestinians. If the Iran war opens that door again, pressure on Israel to make concessions in Gaza will grow.
The ceasefire secured the release of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas, one of the government’s stated war aims and a major achievement Netanyahu claimed as his own. But he halted the campaign before Israel’s broader goals were met, largely because of American impatience with the long war.
So Gaza, a tiny strip of land home to more than 2 million Palestinians, remains Israel’s closest and most immediate challenge. Netanyahu had vowed to topple Hamas and strip it of its weapons and governing power. Neither has happened. Hamas still controls Gaza, though in a weakened form, and has only been removed from areas along the “Yellow Line,” where Israeli forces remain under the ceasefire.
“As long as Hamas controls Gaza, and so it still does, albeit weakened, this problem will not be solved,” Yehoshua said.
Part of the bind is political. Netanyahu leads the most far-right coalition in Israel’s history, with voices inside it calling for the full occupation of Gaza and renewed Jewish settlement there. He has ruled that out, aware of the international backlash, led by the United States, that such a move would provoke.
“The inability to decide and the lack of strategy by the government that didn’t give any serious thought to the matter has caused Israel to drag its feet,” Yehoshua said. “Choosing not to decide is also a type of decision.”
For years, Israel underestimated Hamas. That helps explain the shock of October 7, 2023, when the group killed approximately 1,200 Israelis in a single day. More than two years later, after Israel has battered stronger enemies elsewhere, Hamas still stands. Its deep entrenchment inside one of the most densely populated places on earth has limited Israel’s military options from the start.
While Washington has backed Israeli action in Gaza, it also wants quiet there. A plan devised by President Trump’s close adviser Jared Kushner, and special envoy Steve Witkoff envisions a demilitarized Gaza governed by a technocratic administration rather than Hamas. For now, that remains theoretical. The proposed government has yet to deploy, Hamas continues to operate as a military force, and no unified authority is ready to take charge of reconstruction, public services, or security.
Hiba Husseini, a Palestinian attorney, disputed the idea that Hamas alone is blocking that transition. “Based on my information, it's not only Hamas that is objecting to the technocratic committee,” she told The Media Line. “It's also Israel.”
Milstein doubts the formula under discussion would amount to a true break with Hamas rule. “Trump will probably push for further Israelis withdrawal from Gaza,” he said.
“The technocratic government may be instated, but it is actually a cover for Hamas still ruling Gaza. To rid Gaza of Hamas’ hold, all of the territory must be conquered. That’s not something Trump will give a green light to.”
A more humanitarian reading comes from Husseini, who warned that Gaza risks becoming a forgotten crisis under the shadow of the Iran war. “The more important things for me are the humanitarian conditions in Gaza and also the longevity of this war without proper shelter, food, and medical supplies in the Strip,” she said. “Nothing has changed. Unfortunately, Gaza is now on the sidelines. … I hope it won't be a forgotten situation amid this bigger regional picture.”
Netanyahu has often succeeded in pushing the Palestinian issue to the margins. But once the focus on Iran fades and the roar of Israeli and American warplanes dies down, Gaza will return to the center—still unresolved, still volatile, and still waiting for an answer no one seems ready to give.