Roughly two weeks ago, Hezbollah chose to enter the war on the side of Iran. It was largely funded, armed, and created by Iran’s regime in the 1980s, and it therefore feels it must stand by its patron.
This was a different choice than the one made in the 12 Day War last June. Hezbollah apparently feels that Tehran’s regime is under existential threat from the double blows of the US and Israel, however, and it feels it must be ready for a long-haul conflict.
Hezbollah’s war against Israel this time is different from some of what it has done previously. It also entered the Israel-Hamas War a day after the October 7 massacre in 2023. After it intervened in that conflict, however, its rate of attacks was limited.
It also did something similar this time. It entered the current war on March 2, a few days after Israel and the US began airstrikes against Iran on February 28.
Since then, there have been about 379 separate waves of attack from Hezbollah in Lebanon, including more than 400 rockets, according to the Institute for National Security Studies. This includes the big barrage last week, when the terrorist group launched more than 100 rockets.
Lebanon knows Israel is threatening to begin a ground offensive in Lebanon. It knows Israel has also threatened to expand its airstrikes. According to reports in Lebanon, some 800,000 people have been displaced in two weeks of fighting.
Hezbollah believes this is acceptable. Not only that, but it is also causing tensions with Syria, suggesting it is not concerned about the possibility of clashes with Damascus.
Hezbollah was widely believed to have been weakened when Israel increased its attacks against it between September and November 2024. A ceasefire deal at the time appeared to offer opportunities for Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah.
Beirut did not disarm the group, however, and the rocket fire since March 2 has shown that Hezbollah has a formidable arsenal. Reports that Israel had greatly diminished the Hezbollah arsenal in 2024 could have exaggerated the success.
On the other hand, Hezbollah simply may be firing what it has left, or it may have replenished some of its arsenal. What is clear is that Hezbollah is keeping up steady rocket fire.
Hezbollah might be counting on France's proposal
Beirut-based newspaper Al Akhbar, which supports Hezbollah and Iran, has reported on some of the talking points coming out of Beirut. This can be seen as reflecting how Hezbollah may be thinking.
One thing is clear: Hezbollah may be counting on France to come up with some kind of peace proposal.
Another aspect of Hezbollah’s tactics is an attempt by its supporters to portray its morale as high.
Hussein Jishi, who is a member of the Lebanese parliament for Hezbollah’s Loyalty to Resistance bloc, “affirmed that the resistance fighters are steadfast and ready to sacrifice, noting that the people are standing firm alongside the resistance in order to break the equation in which the enemy has violated the land of Lebanon and its people,” Al Akhbar reported.
Jishi visited Jabal Amel Hospital in Tyre to assess its condition, staff, and needs, the report said.
“This demonstrates that the enemy makes no distinction in its targeting, claiming to target resistance fighters, while what is actually happening on the ground are massacres,” he was quoted as saying.
“Many of the wounded are from families who were never displaced or have returned to their homes,” he said. “Therefore, entire families often arrive injured.”
Al Akhbar also has reported on comments from Turkey, where the government has been critical of Israel’s strikes in Lebanon.
The BBC visited the Lebanese village of Younine, where it said an Israeli airstrike had killed several people.
“As Israel continues to attack targets connected to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the BBC visited the remains of a home where eight members of a family, including three children, were killed in a strike,” the report said. “The yellow flag of the Iran-backed armed group was hanging on top of a pile of rubble in the northeastern town of Younine. There were children’s toys and packets of sweets among the debris.”
“More than 800 people have been killed in Israel’s military action, according to figures from the Lebanese health ministry,” the BBC reported.
On Saturday, the IDF said it had “completed an additional wave of strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon. As part of the strikes, the IDF struck several Hezbollah launch sites in the Qatrani area, from which Hezbollah terrorists planned to launch rockets imminently.”
“Additionally, the IDF struck and dismantled Hezbollah ‘Radwan Force’ command centers in Beirut, from which Hezbollah terrorists advanced terrorist attacks against the State of Israel and Israeli civilians,” the report said. “Since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion, IDF strikes in Lebanon have severely damaged the organization’s command and control capabilities, its financial capacity, and the weapons in its possession.”
Hezbollah can read the same IDF statements and must judge for itself whether it can withstand the bombardment. It is also aware that the messaging from Israel is that if and when the Iran conflict winds down, the IDF is ready for a long war in Lebanon.