Despite Jordan intercepting Iranian missiles aimed at Israel and the Islamic regime targeting sites in the Hashemite Kingdom, Amman has managed to maintain its reputation as a neutral party, an expert explained to The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
Amman, like many countries in the region, has not been spared by the Islamic regime. An American THAAD missile battery in Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan, was destroyed earlier this month, according to a CNN analysis of satellite images, and there have been reports of destruction as a result of shrapnel falling on the country.
"All occupied territories and the criminal US bases in the region have been struck by the powerful blows of Iranian missiles. This operation will continue relentlessly until the enemy is decisively defeated," Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on the first day of the latest round in the conflict.
Ofir Winter, a senior researcher at the INSS, Tel Aviv University, told the Post that Jordan’s carefully balanced neutrality has been expressed through both its diplomatic statements and through its actions.
“Jordan is focused on defending its sovereignty and security, whether by intercepting missiles and UAVs passing through its airspace en route to Israel or by intercepting threats directly targeting its territory, citizens, or military bases,” Winter said. “Jordan does not openly align with Israel, but it does maintain security coordination with Israel and the United States, defends its border with Israel, and remains committed to the peace treaty.”
While Amman has so far been committed to maintaining the delicate line of neutrality, Winter theorized that “this line could shift” and the kingdom could shift to a more anti-Tehran mentality if the regime continues its attacks, or if it suspects that the regime is collapsing.
Iran strikes push Jordan to defend sovereignty
Jordan’s Military Media Directorate confirmed on Saturday said that the Jordan Armed Forces–Arab Army (JAF) had intercepted 158 out of 164 Iranian rockets and drones that targeted vital facilities in the Kingdom during the second week of the ongoing war. Of these interceptions, 85 missiles and 79 drones were launched towards vital targets inside Jordan, the directorate claimed.
While largely successful at impeding the attacks, Public Security Department Spokesperson Lt. Col. Amer Sartawi confirmed that nine people were wounded in the Kingdom due to 93 reported incidents involving fallen objects, according to The Jordan Times.
“At present, uncertainty regarding the outcome of the war and the future of the Iranian regime explains Jordan’s cautious approach, preserving its strategic partnership with the United States and Israel while avoiding burning bridges with Iran,” Winter shared. “For example, the Iranian embassy in Amman remains operational, and diplomatic relations continue despite the hostilities.”
Amman has avoided paying a regional price for intercepting the attacks, which numerous Gulf states have also done, by presenting the action as “defending its sovereignty” and maintaining “that its airspace will not serve as a battlefield,” Winter noted.
While regional players have been more than understanding, the presence of Iran-backed Islamist groups in the country will continue to pose some risk domestically.
“Within the kingdom, there are actors, whether from the Muslim Brotherhood or other pro-Palestinian groups, who would prefer to see Jordan allow Iranian missiles to pass through its airspace on their way to Israel. Some have also called throughout the war for Jordan to join the ‘ring of fire’ of violent resistance against Israel and have even carried out attacks against Israel along the Jordanian border,” Winter noted, adding that such groups’ actions were what led Jordan to outlaw the Muslim Brotherhood in April.
“Jordan serves as a geographic buffer between Israel and various terrorist threats. Still, there remains a risk of activity by terrorist cells affiliated with Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, or pro-Iranian militias, particularly those from Iraq, seeking to operate against Israel from Jordanian territory or to exploit vulnerabilities along the long border between the two countries,” Winter continued.
“At the same time, there are many Jordanians that support the regime’s position and call for a framework that does not force a choice between Israel and Iran, but rather one that places Jordan’s national interests first. This is linked to the broader debate over the kingdom’s national identity and whether its primary commitment is to itself or to wider Islamic or Palestinian circles,” he added.
Discussing comments made by Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty during his visit to Amman this week, which saw the official call for more intense security coordination between Arab nations, Winter said that there have long been talks of establishing an “Arab NATO,” but such discussions “have not translated into concrete action.”
The lack of movement on such a security agreement has meant it is difficult to assess what an Arab NATO would look like, but “in any case, in my assessment, Israel is not expected to play a significant role in it,” Winter explained.
“The rationale behind the Egyptian initiative is not only to help Gulf states confront Iranian threats, but also to fill the regional vacuum resulting from Iran’s weakening and to create an Arab force that could serve as a balancing counterweight to Israel and deter it,” he added.
“The current war has heightened concerns in Egypt and Jordan about a potential Israeli-American hegemony in the region, which could translate into unilateral, expansionist, and forceful policies in the Palestinian arena and beyond,” Winter continued.
Adding to the complex fears relating to Israeli-US hegemony, Winter said there were growing concerns in Jordan about Jerusalem’s West Bank policies and the annexation of territory undermining the Palestinian Authority.
The “erosion of the status quo” at the Temple Mount, a holy site to Abrahamic religions known to Muslims as the al-Aqsa Mosque, could further deteriorate Israeli-Jordanian relations, he said, noting that Amman has invested heavily at its own expense in creating an “alternative homeland for the Palestinians and resolving the Palestinian issue.”
“If these concerns materialize, a further deterioration in Israeli-Jordanian peace relations is expected, as this constitutes a red line for the kingdom. Jordan is likely to work with other Arab and Muslim countries vis-à-vis Washington and additional international actors in an effort to prevent such a scenario and protect the chance for a future two-state solution and its custodianship in Jerusalem,” Winter concluded.