Former Mossad counterterrorism division head Oded Eilam said a military confrontation between Israel and Turkey was highly unlikely despite what he described as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's long-term strategy of regional expansion, in an interview with 103FM on Friday.
Asked about the Turkish threat toward Israel, Eilam said war between the two countries was not on the horizon.
"The answer is unequivocally no, for the simple reason that neither side is interested in a military confrontation, certainly not at the present time," he said. "That is completely contrary to Erdogan's outlook and to his strategy of creeping annexation."
Eilam went on to describe what he said was Erdogan's broader strategy.
"Erdogan is not nostalgically longing for the Ottoman era. He has an organized plan of action. His plan is a multiyear one that says, 'I am going to pursue the creeping annexation of entire areas across the region, in Libya, Somalia and Africa, and of course, in Gaza.'
"He is not going to jeopardize it through a confrontation with one of the greatest powers in the region, Israel, and therefore the chances of a military confrontation are extremely slim, virtually zero."
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According to Eilam, Israel had been right to draw a clear line with Turkey.
"Israel did well to draw a clear line in the sand for the Turks. There is a very blatant violation of the status quo here by the Turks. This is an attempt to bring in an advanced system that would have disrupted Israeli Air Force flights to Iran."
"Erdogan is not eager for battle. He often dances a tango, two steps forward and one step back. Maybe he is tap dancing, but he recognizes Israeli power," the former senior Mossad official added.
"He is building himself up over time, and he has the most impressive navy in the Mediterranean, which in my opinion even poses a threat to Europe, to a certain extent beyond Bulgaria and Greece."
Eilam also described what he said was another important card Erdogan holds in his dealings with Europe.
"He also controls the gateway for refugees, and he receives on the order of $200 million to $250 million a year just to keep them with him, so that they do not flood into Europe. The Europeans are terrified, and for the Americans, it is convenient."
Concluding the interview, Eilam criticized US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack.
"And we need to be wary of all the inflammatory rhetoric of Erdogan's representative in Washington, whose name is Tom Barrack. He tells us that Turkish planes were in the air. All that's missing is an entire Hollywood movie."