The most important question confronting Israel, the US, and the world after the US bombed the all-important Iranian Fordow nuclear site with its mega-bunker-buster bombs, and added some “icing on the cake” attacks to Natanz and Isfahan, is how much has Iran’s nuclear program been pushed off?
Prior to the US attack, estimates were that an attack on Fordow, following Israel having already mostly destroyed Natanz and Isfahan, would push off the nuclear program by a minimum of six months, with many coming in at two years, and some thinking the delay could even be longer.
Israeli and US intelligence estimates made known to The Jerusalem Post had been that only the US’s 30,000 pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb, an even larger variant of the 21,000 plus pound bomb (MOAB) – could completely destroy Fordow, which is located under a mountain, and that Israeli attacks would only damage or cause cave-ins to delay the use of Fordow for some shorter period of time.
In fact, this is why Israel waited to attack Fordow for the past nine days: to see if it could get the US to do the job more thoroughly.
Initial estimates, therefore, are that Fordow is not only partially damaged or caved-in but destroyed.
But these are only initial estimates based on the science of how deep Fordow is and the explosive power of the MOAB/MOP.
The truth is that no one knows, because no one has ever bombed a site this deep before. Even if someone had, such a deep site will have its own unique characteristics in terms of the kind of rock and the kind of human defenses – a version of “major bomb blast doors” – that could slow down or deplete the explosive power of the bomb.
Fordow's status
This is an instance in which eventually, there is one right answer: It was damaged or destroyed, but we may not know for some time.
US and Israeli satellites and aircraft may not be able to see all the details underneath a mountain or mountain cave-in, and there were no public statements indicating American or any other non-Iranian forces on the ground at Fordow to check up close.
Such a mission could itself be extra risky, because it may not be possible to find out the answer without spending many hours or even days digging through the rubble.
There is a question about whether the Iranian will want to lie to say things are better than expected, or whether they will eventually come clean, knowing that the world eventually will find out anyway.
Some Israeli officials told the Post they believe Fordow was destroyed, while others said caution should be the rule until confirmation.
But let’s say Fordow was destroyed and not just damaged. Could the reprieve for the nuclear threat be longer than two years?
Iran and critics of hitting its nuclear program have repeatedly said ad nauseam that no one can kill the nuclear knowledge acquired by the regime in recent years as it succeeded to enrich uranium up to 60%.
But Israel has killed many nuclear scientists this time and destroyed dozens of nuclear locations besides the big three.
Could the delay therefore be longer? It is too early to say.
But these are the fateful questions that Israel, the US, and the world need answered to fully understand how much time Israeli and US operations in Iran have now bought from the ayatollah’s nuclear threat.