Israel has been bombing parts of western Iran to support Iranian Kurdish militias who hope to exploit the US-Israeli war on Iran to seize towns near the frontier, according to three sources familiar with Israel's talks with the factions.
The notion of an offensive by Iranian Kurdish forces based in Iraq gained attention on Friday when US President Donald Trump told Reuters it would be "wonderful" if they crossed the border.
A Kurdish insurgency could have serious consequences for Iran as it defends itself against the air campaign. The militias have consulted with the US about how and whether to attack Iran's security forces, Reuters has reported.
Israeli talks with Iranian Kurds stretch back a year
Israel has been holding its own talks with Iranian Kurdish insurgent groups based in the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan for around a year, two Iranian Kurdish sources said, while an Israeli source said talks had been "long-term."
The two Iranian Kurdish sources have direct knowledge of the armed dissident groups and the source from Israel has direct knowledge of its engagement with them. All spoke on condition of anonymity.
Israel's government and the Israeli military did not immediately respond to requests for comment, and Israel has not commented publicly on such engagement during the current war.
An initial goal of the Kurdish factions would be seizing Iranian territory along the border, the three sources said. One of the Kurdish sources said their aim was to seize the towns of Oshnavieh and Piranshahr, among others.
These sources said thousands of fighters were gathering on the Iraqi side of the border and preparing to launch an offensive within a week, something Reuters was not able to confirm.
Independent estimates put the militias' combined strength at 5,000-8,000.
They possess only light arms, according to the Kurdish sources. But while they might not have the firepower to mount a significant bid for self-rule, with US and Israeli help they could cause trouble on the border.
The Israeli source said Israel did not expect them to be able to overthrow their government, but that backing them could erode Iran's control over its hinterlands and distract its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Five long-standing Iranian dissident groups announced an alliance just at the end of last month.
It includes the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) and the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), which have all participated in insurgencies and maintain fighters in Iraq.
It is not clear that they will get any support from their ethnic brethren in Iraq, however; Iraqi Kurdistan's political leadership has publicly denied any plan to send fighters or get involved in Iran, despite reports of outside pressure to do so.
The Israeli source cautioned that there was pushback from the Iraqi Kurds, and without their practical support it would be hard for the Iranian Kurds to mobilize. Trump's lack of clarity on how long the war could last had also led to hesitancy.
Iran has been attacking Kurdish armed groups inside Iraq, along with US bases in the area, and on Friday warned Iraqi Kurdistan that it would retaliate against any deployment of hostile forces on the frontier.
Iranian Kurds "providing target information" for air war
The three sources said Kurds within Iran had been providing targeting intelligence on the border areas to the US and Israel.
Israeli analyst Jonathan Spyer said Israel was seeking to "destroy the regime by any means available."
But Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert and former Israeli intelligence officer, said an insurgency in Iran did not have broad support among Iraqi and Iranian Kurds:
"I think they're all waiting to see if the regime will hold on or not."
Turkish and Iraqi officials, neither keen to support separatism among an ethnic group spread across parts of Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran, have also expressed reservations about any insurgency in Iran.
Citrinowicz said supporting an uprising might backfire on the US and Israel by fanning nationalism.
Israel has maintained discreet military, intelligence and business ties with various Kurdish groups since the 1960s, viewing them as a buffer against shared adversaries.
The two Kurdish sources said the factions were in closer coordination with the US than with Israel, but that any cross-border offensive would require air support from both.
One of those sources said they had not yet received weapons, but would request air defense systems, drones, small arms, and artillery support.
Kurdish groups have a long history of working with the US, but recent incidents have strained ties.
One of the Iranian Kurdish sources said Kurdish leaders had concerns about being "betrayed" like the Kurdish groups in northern Syria, who had been forced to cede territory after long serving as the primary US partner in the area.
The source said Iranian Kurdish leaders had requested guarantees from the US, without saying what they were.
Both Iranian Kurdish sources said the factions' goal would be to establish a semi-autonomous region in a federal Iran, similar to the model in Iraq.