Iran appears to have settled into a strategy of attrition in the ongoing war, as it has increased its attacks throughout the Middle East over the last week.
The Islamic Republic appears to be now increasingly shifting to strike at oil tankers and other energy facilities, with the goal of driving up the price for the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. So far, this strategy has not worked for Iran; instead, it has united many countries in the Gulf in opposition to Tehran.
Gulf states are not ready to join the war, but they have gone to the UN to get condemnation for Iran’s actions.
Iran appears to think it can wear down Israel and the US in this conflict, preparing itself for a long war of attrition; it may survive. From Tehran's point of view, the major damage was done to it early in the war, as the state lost its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and its navy was destroyed.
Even considering recent losses, Iran is a large country, and it assumes it can survive the other blows in the war.
Iran shifts strategy toward long war of attrition
The Islamic Republic may be looking to other countries for experience, with the long war between Russia and Ukraine being one of the possible examples.
Russia entered the war hoping for a quick victory over Ukraine, which makes it a possible example for Iran. Ukraine was able to hold on in the first difficult weeks and then stabilize a long frontline. As such, Ukraine has been able to survive the blows from Russia, which has settled in for the long war.
Ukraine has backed Russia in the war in Ukraine. However, it may think that it can replicate the long war that has taken place there.
Ukraine, under blows from Russia, has not collapsed, which made Iran believe it has the long strategic depth of a country like Ukraine or Russia, and that it can also weather the blows.
Iran may also be looking at the Yugoslavia wars of the 1990s as an example. In those wars, the Former Republic of Yugoslavia found itself up against NATO.
During the Kosovo crisis, for instance, NATO bombed Yugoslavia for more than two months, which primarily meant airstrikes on Serbian forces in Kosovo and Serbia itself.
In the end, Yugoslavia was forced to give up Kosovo, and Serbia, which was the dominant country, got weakened in the war. However, Serbia continues to exist today, and it has navigated the post-war era over the last quarter-century. If Iran’s regime is focused on regime survival, it may hope it can survive several months of bombing and continue as before.
Serbia, in the Kosovo war, faced a similar kind of firepower that Iran is facing. It was struck by some 10,000 sorties of NATO aircraft.
Belgrade faced the same challenges Iran has faced, in the sense that it was outgunned and outnumbered. It didn’t feel it could fight back, and therefore, all it could do was wait and hope for the best. While it fought against insurgents in Kosovo, eventually the Serbian forces were forced to give in and leave the country.
For NATO, Kosovo was a success. However, it may be that lessons can also be learned from the Serbian experience. Iran has ties with countries such as Serbia and Russia, and may be looking closely at these past conflicts.
Another conflict is also closer to home. In 1991 the US led a coalition to eject Saddam Hussein’s Iraq from Kuwait. From January 17 to February 28, the US-led alliance flew around 116,000 sorties against Iraq, which decimated Iraq’s air defenses and army. It enabled a rapid ground maneuver that defeated Saddam’s army. In the wake of the conflict, there was an uprising in Iraq against Saddam. However, Baghdad was able to defeat the uprising.
Iran may think it can also weather a similar storm, where there are weeks of airstrikes followed by an uprising in the periphery of Iran.
Tehran would want to play the various groups in Iran off against each other, so the experience of Iraq after the 1991 war is not exemplary. The country was isolated for a decade, and then the Saddam regime was overthrown in 2003.
Iran’s regime may think that its future will turn out differently. It is not clear where its optimism may come from. Possibly, it hopes that a shifting world order will enable it to escape isolation in a post-war period. Either way, Iran is clearly settling in for a long campaign of attrition.