The countries that are seeking to play a role in ending the conflict with Iran are also positioning themselves for a post-war reality. On the other hand, those countries that appear to be more supportive of the conflict also have a lot at stake.
The US and Israel began the war on Iran on February 28 with airstrikes. A month later, it appears that Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, India and several other countries are seeking to help ease and reduce tensions.
Meanwhile, the UAE and some other countries have been expressing concern about how Iran has lashed out in the region, and they wonder if a deal will address emerging issues, such as the drone threat.
The debate about which countries may want the war to continue is a discussion that has often been wrapped up in reports leaked to the media, which are usually difficult to verify and may serve various agendas.
For instance, some reports portray Saudi Arabia as being one country that has quietly encouraged the US approach, while others say this is not true. Because it is impossible to know, it’s best to leave that question aside.
The reports about the countries playing a role in seeking to mediate with Iran or enable US-Iran talks are clearer on what is happening.
Turkey, Pakistan mediate as Iran war shifts regional power
Turkey’s state media TRT says that Turkey’s “Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan discussed the ongoing Iran war with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi and Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar, according to Turkish diplomatic sources.”
The report goes on to note that “Fidan and Araghchi discussed the 'latest situation in the war' over a phone call,' the sources said. In a separate phone call, Fidan and Dar discussed efforts to end the conflict triggered by the joint US-Israel attacks on Iran.”
Turkey is a US NATO ally, as proven by the fact that Turkey’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has historically had warm ties with US President Donald Trump.
Pakistan also has historically warm ties with the US, going back to at least the time of the Nixon administration. The state has had very good ties with the Trump administration. As such, both Turkey and Pakistan may likely have the clout and influence to help make a deal.
What else is TRT saying? “Earlier, Fidan also held separate phone calls with his counterparts from China, Syria, Qatar, and Uzbekistan to discuss the course of the ongoing war in the region and efforts to stop it, diplomatic sources said.”
The mention of China, Syria and Uzbekistan in this context is important, as reports say that Trump may meet the leader of China in May after the meeting was postponed.
China stands to gain from this conflict depending on how the chips fall. “According to Turkish Foreign Ministry sources, Fidan spoke with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al Shaibani, Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and Bakhtiyor Saidov, Uzbekistan’s foreign minister,” TRT notes.
Turkey’s discussions with all these countries show how it has regional and global influence. It is positioning itself for the post-war period. It wants to help ease the way out of the war and towards an era where Ankara will be seen as a responsible country that is not involved in wars.
This is a shift for Ankara from several years ago, when it had more tensions with its neighbors, such as Greece. Today, Turkey is seeking to revert to the policy that its ruling AKP party once championed: the “zero problems” policy.
TRT notes that “Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed Beijing's support for Türkiye's ‘constructive role’ in promoting Middle East talks, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency.”
The Chinese top diplomat encouraged countries to remain calm in the region and respond rationally to the crisis, which shows how China has been trying to show it has a pragmatic approach.
As a key member of various economic blocs such as BRICS and the SCO, Beijing is positioning itself for the post-Iran war era as well. While some have argued that the war with Iran was a message to China, the state may be concluding other things from this war.
Several years ago, the US was speaking about wanting to pivot more to Asia and confront “near-peer adversaries” such as China. This national security concept has been upended by the Iran war, and China may see an opening.
Another part of the story regarding Pakistan and other countries playing a role in mediation is that these countries are some of the ones that have spoken more openly about a multi-polar world in recent years.
As such, they see the new world order as one that consists of more regional powers stepping into the breach, in terms of the vacuum in regional leadership created by the Iran conflict, and seeking to reduce conflict. The US will likely value this work in the future.
The White House may want to climb down, and Pakistan and Turkey may be providing a hand to do so.
More than a century ago, the US, under Teddy Roosevelt, helped end the Russo-Japanese War, and the result of these American efforts was the Treaty of Portsmouth, signed on September 5, 1905, at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery, Maine, United States. This was symbolic. Two years later, Roosevelt sent the American ‘Great White Fleet’ on a round-the-world tour, when sixteen modern American battleships took part. This showed how the US was a rising naval power and thus a global power.
By aiding Russia and Japan to end the war, the US was helping to lift the curtain on a new century in which Asian powers would come to play a major role. In addition, it potentially symbolized the long, slow decline of European powers.
What is happening today is something very different. With the US engaged in a conflict with Iran, alongside Israel, countries are stepping in to help end the conflict. Shipyards in the US, like the one where the 1905 treaty was signed, no longer build as many ships. The world is changing, and countries that hope to play a role in that change are stepping forward.