World food prices climbed in March to their highest level since September last year and could rise further if the Middle East conflict that pushed up energy prices continues, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Friday.
"Price rises since the conflict began have been modest, driven mainly by higher oil prices and cushioned by ample global cereal supplies," FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said in a statement.
But if the conflict lasts over 40 days and input costs remain high, farmers may reduce inputs, plant less, or switch crops to less intensive fertilizer crops, he said.
"Those choices will hit future yields and shape our food supply and commodity prices for the rest of this year and all of the next," he added.
The FAO Food Price Index, which measures changes in a basket of globally traded food commodities, rose by 2.4% from its revised February level. It is 1% above its value a year ago, although nearly 20% below its March 2022 peak, reached after the start of the war in Ukraine.
War causing asymmetric global shock
The rise in food prices comes as economies of frontline countries continue to be disrupted, dimming the outlook for economies that have just started to recover from previous crises, according to warnings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this week.
The IMF said that the war with Iran was causing a global, asymmetric economic shock and leading to tighter financial conditions.
The cereal price index increased by 1.5% from the previous month, led by a 4.3% rise in international wheat prices, driven by worsening crop prospects in the US and Australia due to higher fertilizer costs.
Strait of Hormuz a key trading route
About a third of fertilizer production passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key regional trade route that Iran closed down in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes.
The Strait carries about a fifth of the world's total oil consumption.
Gulf States are now expanding oil pipelines beyond the Strait to reduce dependence on the crucial waterway, as a trade route connecting the Arabian Peninsula with the Mediterranean is considered.
Meanwhile, reopening the waterway remains a top priority for governments worldwide, as prices are projected to continue to soar.
The UN projects that global prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists.
Vegetable oil prices increased 5.1%, marking the third consecutive monthly rise. Higher quotations for palm, soy, sunflower, and rapeseed oil reflected the impact of rising global energy prices and expectations of stronger biofuel demand.
Palm oil prices reached their highest level since mid-2022.
Sugar prices jumped 7.2% in March to their highest since October 2025, as higher crude oil prices drove expectations that Brazil, the world's largest sugar exporter, would channel more sugarcane into producing ethanol.