Pakistan may be set to host new rounds of talks to try to resolve issues between the US and Iran. Reports on April 19 suggested that US planes had arrived in Islamabad on Sunday with an “advance team,” according to Al Jazeera. The goal is to have a second round of talks, which may begin on Monday, April 20.
Arab News in Saudi Arabia reported that “Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was at a standstill on Sunday after Iran reasserted control over the strategic waterway that is key to global energy supply, days before a fragile ceasefire with the United States was set to expire.”
Al Ain News in the UAE said that “the world is watching closely the results of the US-Iranian negotiations, which are being held amid Iranian intransigence that threatens to cause them to collapse at any moment.” The region is watching closely what comes next.
The reports of new talks come around a week after US Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad on April 11 after attending talks there. Since then, there has been a rollercoaster ride regarding what might happen. The Strait of Hormuz was supposed to open on April 17. Israel and Lebanon were strong-armed into a ceasefire by the White House.
The understanding was that Iran had linked its own demands regarding a deal to getting a ceasefire in Lebanon. With that ceasefire in order, Hormuz was supposed to open. However, Iran then claimed that since the US blockade was continuing, it would continue to prevent ships from leaving the strait. A few ships made a dash for it during the short window when it was open.
Now, it is less clear what is going on in Pakistan. The US wants Iran to hand over enriched uranium. The US may also have demands about Iran’s ballistic missile program. Depending on which reports one reads, the missile program may be either largely destroyed or partly intact.
For instance, during the war with Iran, which began on February 28, there were claims that Iran could no longer enrich uranium or build missiles. Some also claimed that most of Iran’s missile launchers had been destroyed. Subsequent reports then said that Iran was able to salvage many of the launchers. Iran also has a large number of kamikaze drones.
The sticking point in talks? The Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon
However, a sticking point in talks may relate to the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon. Iran has successfully moved the conflict to focus on these issues. As such, it has expanded the list of topics to be discussed. This is somewhat like going to buy a car, and the negotiation soon becomes more about the value of the “trade-in,” the type of paint on the car, or what rims you want.
It’s about shifting the initial discussion to something else so that when you reach a deal, you feel you’ve “won” because the other side conceded on a completely different issue.
For instance, the Strait of Hormuz was open on February 27. Now it is closed. Iran can claim it is “giving in” by opening the strait. It is “making concessions” by conceding something that didn’t exist before. In negotiation, this is a typical tactic, where one concedes things they didn’t even want to begin with. To achieve goals in negotiation, one doesn’t show the adversary what its top priorities are.
For instance, let’s say two sides are negotiating over four marbles: two of them red and two of them black. For one side the value of the red marbles is 100, but the value of the black marbles is 10. For the other side, it is the opposite. Each side’s goal is to get as much as they can for the lowest amount.
However, the value of what is being discussed is not the same for both sides. By making it seem that something that has less value is actually more valuable, a side may achieve more. Iran’s goal is not only to make sure it loses less in the talks, but also to add extraneous issues.