Oman rejected an offer by the Islamic regime to split administrative responsibilities for the Strait of Hormuz, multiple US and regional sources told the New York Post on Tuesday.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Oman, one of the multiple Gulf states attacked by Iran, to discuss the deal.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that if Tehran were able to secure Oman’s agreement, the regime could present it to the United States as a new proposal to end the blockade without compromising any Iranian red lines.
Arash Azizi, a Gulf analyst and Iranian-American historian who has authored multiple books on Iran, told The Jerusalem Post that Gulf states were likely refusing Iran’s attempts to gain control of the strait out of fear it would jeopardize their relations with the United States.
He noted that narratives around the regime have changed in the region, including from those aligned with its anti-Israel allies.
“You can already see Qatar turning from one of the more pro-Iran voices to one that’s quite stringent in opposing many Iranian narratives. Pro-regime commentators now attack Al Jazeera as an adversary,” he said. “But Iran can choose to seek a deal with the US and better deals with its neighbors.”
While regional politics likely explained the bulk of Oman’s rejection, Azizi suggested that many Gulf states would still be somewhat amenable to a deal that would grant Iran joint custodianship of Hormuz, but that it would depend on the terms of the agreement.
If allowed control over the strait, Iran could raise USD 70-90 billion in annual revenue through charging tariffs, according to a J.P. Morgan paper published earlier this month. Before the US blockade of Iran, Tehran proposed charging 100-130 vessels per day $2 mm each crossing.
A source familiar with mediation efforts told the New York Post of the Gulf states, “They have no interest in paying for Iran’s reconstruction. As a result of all of this, they are not going to allow Iran either to control the strait nor toll ships coming through.”
Though seemingly unwilling to accept Washington’s demands on its nuclear program or use of proxies, ISW stressed that the regime was eager to see the strait opened, as the country’s economic situation was already dire before the latest round of conflict.
Iran facing growing economic pains
The rial hit a record low on April 29, and Iran is facing several other challenges, including high inflation and job losses. The growing economic pains, Tehran fears, could lead to a resumption of protests like those violently suppressed in January.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, indicated that, despite the risk of returning to active war, the regime would not give up control of the vital strait.
In a written message to Iranians, Khamenei asserted on Thursday that Tehran would eliminate "the enemies' abuses of the waterway" under new management of the strait, indicating that the country intended to maintain its hold over it.
"Foreigners who come from thousands of kilometers away... have no place there except at the bottom of its waters," he said.