The US and Iran appear poised to agree on a path forward toward some kind of deal. It is not entirely clear what is being agreed upon or what may emerge in the coming days.
Over the last few months, there have been many similar claims that a deal is about to be signed. In many cases, the actual points agreed upon are not a deal, but rather a memorandum to reach a deal in the future.
There are many takeaways from the emerging agreement.
Former US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro wrote on X/Twitter that “Until the text of the US-Iran deal is signed and released, there is going to be a lot of spin on both sides. But here is my initial take.”
He went on to note that “this war was a mistake, and it needs to end. The President thought that the Iranian regime would collapse quickly, but it did not."
"In fact, it has been strengthened strategically by its survival against a heavy US-Israeli assault and carrying out some effective counterstrikes," he added. "Many countries in the region are now courting Iran and looking to de-escalate and rebuild ties. A sign of which way the wind is blowing.”
What might happen in the next few days and months? There are many possibilities based on what we know and don’t know. This is an opportune time to be reminded of former US secretary of defense Don Rumsfeld’s famous “known unknowns” and “unknown knowns.”
What if a deal happens and goes well for both sides?
One scenario is that a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is agreed and signed in Switzerland. Under an optimistic scenario, both Iran and the US believe they have won something, and even Israel is content to wait and see.
After the signing in Switzerland, the mediators in Islamabad, Doha, and other places will begin working on a deal. Iran will end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US will end the blockade of Iran. There will be an agreement to remove enriched uranium from Iran. Iran will get sanctions relief.
Everything returns to normal in the Middle East, and there is stabilization. With the war behind everyone, the US can work on a new era in the region and pivot to focus on other issues in Europe and Asia. With the Strait open, the region's economies improve, and Israel and the Gulf states can work toward closer integration.
What if an agreement is not signed in Switzerland?
However, there is still the possibility that, despite the efforts of Pakistan, Qatar, and others to reach an MoU between the two countries, Iran and the US are unable to agree this week and instead postpone the deal once again.
Under this scenario, the region returns to the low-level conflict it has seen since April. Israel continues to operate against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran continues to threaten to retaliate for any Israeli strikes on Beirut.
The region continues to be in low-level turmoil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz means countries need alternative trade routes, which in turn means developing more overland trade via Syria.
The White House comes to accept that the war won’t end but that it also won’t spill over. A new status quo is a low-level conflict.
What if an agreement is made this week, but no final deal is reached?
A third scenario envisions an MoU signed this week, but negotiations between Iran and the US drag on throughout the summer. Iran and the US can’t come to a final agreement. Iran likely prefers this. Tehran assumes that once an interim deal is reached, the White House will see the benefits of avoiding further conflict, and that US partners in the region, such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, will urge the US not to restart the war.
Such a scenario means the negotiations drag on, leaving an open-ended question about whether the conflict is actually over. Israel maintains freedom of action in Lebanon, and Jerusalem pushes for more strikes on Iran in the future.
These become new “rounds” of conflict, a new norm in which Israel and Iran fight short conflicts every few months.
The US needs to keep military refuelers in Israel, and Ben-Gurion Airport continues to experience travel chaos as a result. There is then a push to have the US shift basing to Israel rather than the Gulf. With elections looming for Israel in the fall, more rounds of conflict are happening with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
What if Iran suffers an internal coup?
Even if Iran’s government agrees to an MoU and moves forward in talks with the US, the divided Iranian system, weakened by war and with military commanders cut off from one another, is vulnerable to a coup in Tehran.
It may come from the IRGC and so-called “hardliners” who oppose a deal. It could also come from the army, seeking to pre-empt a hardliner coup. The low-level chaos in Iran now creates uncertainty. The US now knows it can’t rely on Iran to sign a final accord because it’s not clear who is in charge.
What if US returns to conflict with Iran?
While Iran may sign an agreement this week, a final status agreement will be difficult to achieve.
Should a final status agreement not be reached, the Trump administration may decide to use force over the summer or fall to pressure Iran back to the peace table. This results in the US demanding payment for its troubles as well.
The US assumes a greater role in the region and is being pressed to help the Gulf countries defend themselves. Israel continues strikes on Hezbollah, which causes Iran to continue attacks on Israel.
Without a final agreement, the memorandum is not worth much and doesn’t result in a deal. Nevertheless, the opening of the straits is in everyone’s interests, so they remain open.