Iran has already begun shaping the narrative surrounding the deal with the US as a victory, Dr. Raz Zimmt, head of the Shi'ite Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said in a Monday interview with 103FM.
During the radio interview, Zimmt discussed the reactions in Tehran, the agreement's economic implications, and the possibility of renewed anti-regime protests.
According to Zimmt, while some factions in Iran oppose any engagement with Washington, the dominant response to the agreement has been positive, largely because the regime is portraying it as an achievement over both Israel and the US.
"With the exception of a small and vocal minority of ultra-radicals, who viewed negotiations with the United States after the war, and certainly reaching an agreement with it, as a betrayal, there is definitely support for ending the war," said Zimmt. "More importantly, the emerging agreement, although not all of its details are yet clear, is being presented as a strategic victory for Iran.
"At the end of the day, they are presenting it exactly as we feared: Iran not only managed to survive against the two strongest armies in the world, but also succeeded in leveraging this event to achieve a new order that will deter its rivals and secure other economic benefits," he continued.
Zimmt also addressed developments that preceded the signing of the agreement. According to reports from Iran, an Israeli strike in Beirut's Dahiyeh district affected the dynamics between the sides. He said Trump subsequently demonstrated additional flexibility, particularly regarding the timing of lifting the maritime blockade.
"We are relying on reports from Iran indicating that the details of the agreement had not yet been finalized, and that following the escalation and the Israeli strike in Dahiyeh, President Trump further softened his positions, which made it possible to reach the final agreement. I assume that once Israel struck in Dahiyeh, Iran's original intention was to implement the equation it had established, a strike against Israel in response to an Israeli strike in Dahiyeh," he said.
Iran avoids attacking Israel following Beirut strike
Asked what happened behind the scenes that ultimately prevented an Iranian attack on Israel, Zimmt pointed to two parallel developments.
"Yesterday afternoon, there was a dilemma," he said. "The timing was very sensitive, and ultimately, two processes took place. One was discussions among Iran's leadership, as happened last week, and the second was pressure on President Trump, who appears to have agreed to soften his position in at least one area: the timing of lifting the maritime blockade.
"Reports up until yesterday suggested that the blockade would be lifted gradually over the coming month, but by last night it became clear that it would probably be lifted as early as Friday," Zimmt continued. "From the Iranian perspective, that was a concession that allowed them to say they had maintained their connection to Lebanon."
Addressing reports that Trump promised Iran Israel would withdraw from Lebanon, Zimmt said such a move appears unlikely in the near term, particularly without a diplomatic process involving the Lebanese government. However, he suggested Iran could now seek to restrain Hezbollah after using the threat of escalation in Lebanon as leverage during negotiations.
"At face value, I find it difficult to see an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon except in the context of negotiations between the Israeli and Lebanese governments," said Zimmt. "Even if such a process begins, it will be gradual. The question now is whether, after signing the agreement, the Iranians might tell Hezbollah: what worked very well over the past few weeks was that we used the threat of escalating the situation in Lebanon to pressure President Trump to move forward on the Iranian issue. That no longer serves our interests.
"Therefore, from this point on, even if the IDF remains in southern Lebanon, you should cease fire. We could return to that scenario, but it is obviously very fragile, because as long as IDF forces remain in southern Lebanon, it is impossible to prevent a situation in which Hezbollah forces try to attack them."
Billions expected to flow into Iran
Zimmt warned that the agreement is likely to provide the Iranian regime with significant economic relief. Even if frozen Iranian assets are not released immediately, he said, renewed oil exports alone could generate billions of dollars in revenue for Tehran.
"There is no doubt that billions of dollars will flow into Iran," he said. "Even if frozen Iranian funds are not released in the coming weeks, the very fact that the Americans intend to allow oil exports from Iran, at least the oil already sitting on tankers, amounts to billions of dollars in assistance to the Iranians. This will certainly strengthen the regime and help it cope with its severe economic distress.
"Having said that, it is important to remember that the deep economic crisis Iran has fallen into in recent years, especially in recent months, is not solely the result of economic sanctions. It is also the result of mismanagement, corruption, and the fact that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps plays a central role in the Iranian economy."
Still, Zimmt stressed that an influx of money alone will not resolve the regime's deeper structural challenges.
"Without very significant structural reforms in the Iranian economy, and given the severe damage the economy has suffered in recent months, it will be very difficult for Iran's leadership to provide solutions to all of the country's economic problems. Therefore, it is clear even within Iran that, regardless of the economic benefits that will strengthen the regime, this does not solve the fundamental problems facing the Islamic Republic. It is entirely possible that we will see renewed protests in the future."
According to Zimmt, while the agreement may strengthen the regime in the short term, it does not address the underlying causes of public dissatisfaction. Without major economic reforms and improvements in governance, he said, domestic unrest could eventually reemerge despite any immediate gains resulting from the deal.