It's too early to know what will come out of the agreement between the US and Iran, said Avner Vilan, a former senior security official and expert on Iran's nuclear program, on Monday.
"Will we see tricks and gimmicks?" he asked, "The Iranians have no problem lying."
"The nuclear issue, let's see what is included in the final agreement. I think we will be surprised, with an asterisk. For that matter, there is a draft that was published yesterday by the Iranians. The draft says that Iran will completely stop its enrichment."
"I have not yet seen this draft agreement; there have been many leaks, but we need to see what is written there. If what was published is what they actually signed, then this agreement is basically a general statement of intent in exchange for immediate relief from pressure," Vilan explained.
What the Iranians are receiving in this deal
"Opening the Strait of Hormuz in both directions, a halt to the fighting, and then there will be a mechanism through which the Iranians will start receiving money, sanctions will be lifted, they will start giving up their nuclear project," he said.
Vilan then spoke about what the Iranians would receive immediately after signing the agreement: 'The immediate money they will get is the lifting of sanctions on oil exports. Iran has not exported oil since the start of the war, and that is a significant loss for them. Exports become legal, and sanctions on Iran will be removed.
"What exactly does that mean? The devil is going to be in the details, and those details are being dodged right now," Vilan warned.
He then explained that certain key and complex issues would need more attention than this draft agreement seemed to provide.
Deal did not handle Iranian nuclear issue, missiles, proxies, or regime change, expert says
"The nuclear issue, they did not deal with it. Regime change, obviously not. Missiles, obviously not. The proxies, obviously not. They are not included in the agreement."
"I have already said that the devil is in the details. I am not sure that Iran's fast track right now toward a bomb will go through known sites. There is not a single word in the agreement about supervision," Vilan explained.
He emphasized that what we currently know of the agreement relies on trusting the Iranian regime to stay true to their word, which they've proven time and time again that they won't do.
"Iran says it is committing not to develop nuclear weapons and not to enrich, but there is no oversight mechanism that can verify that, so the Iranians know how to operate in secret and advance toward weapons without us knowing. The hard work is still ahead of us."
Vilan summarized his opinions on the agreement with, "We may be surprised, but with the Iranians, you are never pleasantly surprised."