It is difficult to understand the West’s recent strategic behavior toward Beijing as a deliberate provocation of the Chinese dragon. I am not referring to the object of the alleged Chinese spy balloon. It is likely that regardless of the truth, it will be used as a new excuse to create a pretext and mobilize Western allies against China.
The United States is well aware that China is now on the alert and is sensitive about Taiwan. Nevertheless, there are continuing reports that US officials are planning to visit Taiwan. Among them is Michael Chase, the senior official in charge of the Pentagon’s China file.
Another upcoming visit is that of Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the US House of Representatives. The Pentagon declined to comment, limiting expectations and speculation about Chase’s visit, but it was rather equivocated, saying that US support for Taiwan’s defense against existing Chinese threats remains unchanged.
The tensions go beyond the cancellation of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China. It is a sign of recent escalating tensions between the two countries. But media reports also could provoke China.
These include a statement published by US media attributed to a senior US Air Force general who says he believes the US and China will meet in a military confrontation over Taiwan in 2025. The Pentagon commented on the statement, saying it was not the official view. But everyone knows that this pulse sweep is not done without a specific mission and purpose.
One aspect of the growing American interest in the Taiwan dossier goes beyond the fact that it is an area of partisan ping-pong between Democrats and Republicans. There are American circles that believe China is seriously watching the war in Ukraine and the results of the war will inevitably affect the fate of Taiwan.
We find that the US is seriously working to draw lessons from this war to prepare for a possible conflict with China over an island that many believe Washington could be directly involved in defending – unlike in Ukraine, where the US is limited to providing financial and military support.
What will the US do in case of a China-Taiwan war?
RECENT US estimates suggest a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan between 2025 and 2027, and with official US policy toward Taiwan at least ambiguous, there are estimates that the battle for Taiwan could be a decisive battle for the command and control of the coming world order. These assessments partly explain the increased US attention to Taiwan.
The fall of the island is a different scenario from the fall of Ukraine. Supporting Ukraine cannot be repeated because China is capable of isolating Taiwan and surrounding it from all sides for as long as it wants. Some expect that the imposition of a naval and air blockade will be a necessary prelude to the military reconstruction of the island.
This means that the US will seek to provide Taiwan with the weapons and equipment it needs to defend itself in a conflict with China. Taiwan can be expected to enter this potential conflict only with its own weapons and does not expect outside support for the conflict.
The question now is whether the US arsenal is under great pressure because of its support for Ukraine, especially since the prolongation of the war was an unexpected scenario. The West’s increased desire to defeat Russia and break its military strength is forcing it to increase military reinforcements and financial support to Ukraine.
All this makes it difficult to consider military support for Taiwan either because of scarce military resources or the fear of provoking China into a preventive war that would put the West in a very difficult position against two powerful allies, Russia and China, at the same time.
Taiwan’s situation is different from Ukraine’s, especially in terms of the nature of its military requirements.
Taiwan’s needs are focused on naval equipment due to its geographical location, which includes military plans for a possible invasion that was not provided to Ukraine and air defense equipment. The opening of a new conflict front resulting from the continuation of the war in Ukraine and the difficulty of predicting its imminent end puts the West, led by the US, in a very critical strategic position that could lead to a Russian victory and the ultimate loss of Ukraine.
This could lead to the loss of both battles, Taiwan and Ukraine, so the situation requires careful handling of at least the Taiwan issue but what is happening is that the American tone toward China is clearly escalating. Washington is betting that Beijing will avoid a conflict or be drawn into a war of attrition that could end or delay its future ambitions.
ON THE other hand, we must be wary of China’s impatience, which fears undermining its credibility and exposing its national prestige to constant insults and provocations that could put it in a position where it would quickly opt for a military reconquest of Taiwan. Strikingly, Washington is aware that its behavior toward China is already incurring its wrath.
This is already reflected in the remarks of US Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who expressed her hope that China would not use visits by US lawmakers to Taiwan as a pretext for military action and stressed that the US wants to support Taiwan and strengthen its defense capabilities in the face of the one-China policy.
It is difficult to understand how the US can support Taiwan’s defense capabilities while acknowledging its commitment to the one-China policy. According to a US official, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a lesson to China about the impact of any action in the Taiwan Strait on energy and food security and the impact of inflationary pressures. That is correct.
But the lesson here is not just for China. The West has suffered more than China from the war in Ukraine so it must learn this lesson first.
This is not about defending China’s position on Taiwan or accusing the US of pushing the situation toward war. It is about global security and stability. Everyone has seen how most of the world’s economies have suffered from the war in Ukraine and how this war has put the West itself on the spot before any other international party.
So how can we imagine the outbreak of a new conflict in Taiwan and what can happen to the world if two major wars are fought at the same time?
The writer is a UAE political analyst and a former Federal National Council candidate.