Two weeks ago Israel experienced very difficult times. Israeli civilians in the communities surrounding Gaza and IDF soldiers stationed there were subjected to a murderous and barbaric attack by the human animals of Hamas, accompanied by a mob lusting for murder and plunder, made up of those unfit to be called human beings.
The IDF showed up now in full force to carry out its missions in every front, and to carry out the directive of the cabinet to crush Hamas in Gaza and to deprive it totally of its military, governmental, and organizational capabilities, and to kill its leaders and those that participated in this horrible war crime, whether directly or indirectly.
Undoubtedly, the cabinet is conducting deep and serious discussions about the alternatives and methods of action presented by the IDF, the timing of the ground invasion of Gaza and the other theaters of war that are flaring up in varying degrees of intensity, in the north (Lebanon and Syria), in Judea and Samaria, and far from Israel, updating their relative importance, ranking of the dangers and the correct prioritization for dealing with these various theaters of war.
I have no doubt, nor need, as US intelligence and President Biden are declaring, of a smoking gun to indicate that the attack in the south came as part of Iran’s ambition to destroy Israel, and as part of the first stage to drag it into a multi-theater campaign, which Iran would not directly take part in. Hamas carried out its criminal attack using both doctrine and weaponry that mostly came from Iran, funded by Iranian money and relying upon Iranian knowledge, planning and training, under the auspices of Hezbollah and other tentacles of the Iranian octopus.
A long-term plan of attack
Because of this, the possibility cannot be ignored that Khamenei, who is known for his long-term thinking, directed the attack from Gaza as a first stage of a multi-stage, multi-theater attack.
The second stage of Khamenei’s satanic plan is the ground and underground fighting in Gaza, against IDF forces, exploiting the network of underground tunnels (“the metro”) that Hamas and Islamic Jihad prepared for many years with Iranian support and funding. The attempt to damage the "metro" and kill many Hamas terrorists, while doing it, in previous clash did not succeed. In order to reach the second stage and spill Israeli blood, Khamenei appears to be ready to sacrifice Hamas and Gaza.
The third stage of the program is contingent upon the success of the second stage. If the ground fighting gets bogged down and results in high costs for the IDF in terms of casualties and an influx of additional forces, including diverting forces from the north and the reserves, Khamenei will activate the third stage and will throw Hezbollah into the battle with all its comprehensive capabilities, which would not embarrass any European military size. The Redwan forces will be activated to attack the north and high-trajectory and aerial weapons will be used (precise and statistical missiles, UAVs, drones, and more). It is also possible that this stage will be activated if the IDF advances quickly, in order to prevent its success, but to the best of my judgment, the wider and faster the destruction in Gaza, the louder will be the voices in Lebanon and Tehran calling to avoid the entry of Hezbollah, in order to prevent a similar fate from befalling Lebanon.
On the assumption that the third stage will be activated, whether through Hezbollah or in conjunction with Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, and possibly with Judea and Samaria and Israel Arabs, the region and the world will be plunged into chaos and a wider war. Then the time will come for Khamenei’s plan fourth and final stage, for which he possibly devised the entire plan. Khamenei will exploit the mess and will manage to hide enough military-grade enriched Uranium for a large number of bombs and may also make a breakthrough in his weapons program, so when the world comes to its senses it will be after Tehran has become a clear nuclear threshold state, or even possibly one on the cusp of having the bomb itself, depending on the state of its weapons program today, because I no longer trust the intelligence about its real current condition.
If this is indeed Khamenei’s plan, and in light of the intelligence failure that led to the horrible surprise two weeks ago, it is forbidden to rely only upon the intelligence and to claim that there are no clear signs, or conclusive evidence.
So what can be done?
In order to achieve the goals of the war in Gaza, the IDF will need to make a ground incursion into Gaza. The world will not allow Israel to implement the American doctrine from Mosul, Iraq, or a-Raqqa, Syria, using a prolonged siege without electricity, water, food, or medicine for Gaza City, with hundreds of thousands of civilians still remaining there also after moving a huge chunk of Gazan civilians to the south. Without getting into any operational planning, of course, the incursion must be as quick and deep as possible, to reach quickly the Hamas control centers and to eliminate the leaders and their commanding capabilities, and at the same time to free the hostages, including skipping over less important targets on the way. The cleaning, purification, and elimination of all Hamas capabilities and those involved in the crime, while even duplicating the American model from Mosul of destroying Gaza city and making it uninhabitable for decades, will be possible to carry out on the next stage, as was stated just recently by Defense Minister Gallant.
Speed action in Gaza, with IDF success, may prevent Khamenei from starting the third stage of his plan. But, more importantly and perhaps even more desirable for Israel and its northern residents, is the event that Hezbollah does enter the war (and I note that I called a month ago for a preemptive strike in the north, which unfortunately was not accepted, and therefore we lost the opportunity to take Hezbollah’s main capabilities from it by surprise). It will allow the IDF after the first stage of the incursion into Gaza to send forces to the north and to prove to Nasrallah how wrong he was to join the war, even though the IDF can simultaneously deal with more than one theater of war, certainly if they are ranked.
But it is very important not to forget the theater many love to forget. The fourth stage in Khamenei’s satanic plan is a breakout to a nuclear weapon under the cover of a general war. Here the Mossad must take responsibility and step into action, as the Mossad chief David Barnea recently pledged in a fiery speech about punishing Iran. I hope that the US will finally grasped the fact that there is no way to solving the Iranian problem through diplomatic means (unfortunately this realization has not yet happened, even after a recent number of attacks upon American forces in the region at the direction of Iran). If the strong American deterrence sent by Biden, along with the forces he sent to the region, is not sufficient, the US must roll up its sleeves and erase the Iranian program and Khamenei’s malicious plans, even though the US does not really want to do this.
I absolutely realize the possibility that all or partial of the above mentioned plans, might only be a figment of my wild imagination, and implementing them, including the Israeli and American response, in the way that I have described is optimistic and will be complex and dangerous. It is also not clear whether it will win the support of those involved (and I have not even mentioned China and Russia yet), but what we experienced two weeks ago requires some modesty and the preparation in advance for every possibility, while preparing the necessary surprises, working together with our friends, headed by the US, to finally take care of the head of the octopus and not only its tentacles. The time has arrived for Iran and its leaders to understand that they cannot make everyone else wet, and stay dry.
Brigadier General (Res.) Professor Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a professor at the Technion. He served as Prime Minister Netanyahu's national security advisor and as acting head of the National Security Council.