Palestinian state: The source of the problem - opinion

Since the commencement of the Gaza war on October 7, there has been widespread deliberation among the Israeli public, the Israeli and international media, and the global community about the post-war scenario – specifically, what actions to take regarding Gaza. 

The initial proposition, endorsed by politicians and segments of Israeli society and supported by the American administration and Western European countries, suggests the establishment of Palestinian Authority administration in the Gaza Strip. This connection, while not necessarily geographical at the outset, would, from a governance standpoint, link with the administration of the Palestinian Authority in Areas A and B in Judea and Samaria. Such a move is seen as an opportunity to pave the way for the creation of a Palestinian state, ultimately working toward a two-state solution for two peoples.

The suggestion for this resolution is perilous, primarily signaling that a segment of the Israeli public remains ensnared in the flawed and naive perspective of October 6, failing to confront the harsh reality that unfolded on October 7.

To begin with, a cursory look at the present situation in Judea and Samaria suffices to comprehend that the Palestinian Authority lacks the capacity to govern a state entity, especially one aspiring to coexist peacefully alongside Israel. Instead of working toward peace and harmonious coexistence, the Palestinian Authority’s objectives seem geared toward undermining the existence of the State of Israel. 

This is evident in the relentless incitement against Israel and the Jewish people propagated through educational, cultural, and sporting channels. Moreover, it extends to the troubling endorsement and financial support provided to the families of terrorists, thereby encouraging and endorsing the reprehensible act of murdering Jews.

Israel grappled with a significant perception challenge on October 7, as government and security officials dismissed Hamas’s public declarations about its intent to annihilate the State of Israel. Disregarding the explicit statements and actions of Palestinian Authority officials could lead to a comparable crisis in Judea and Samaria and even in Gaza if the PA assumes control.

Moreover, the combination of deficient administrative capacity and a desire to undermine the foundations of Israel’s existence poses severe security threats to both the state and its citizens. The presence of Israeli civilians in Judea and Samaria has prevented the potential collapse of the Palestinian Authority. 

Without the current security presence necessitated by Jewish settlements, there might have been a risk of Hamas attempting to seize power through force. Additionally, recent years have witnessed the emergence of central and independent Palestinian terrorism hubs, particularly in northern Samaria.

We already tried putting the PA in charge of Gaza

IN ADDITION, we must consider the lessons of history. The conditions in Gaza under the rule of the Palestinian Authority mirrored those under Hamas in terms of the intense hostility toward Israel, the promotion of terrorism, and the actual occurrence of terrorist acts. Rocket launches were underway even before Hamas assumed power in 2007, leading to numerous deadly attacks against the Jewish settlement in Gaza.

The endorsement of the idea of the Palestinian Authority governing Gaza and the establishment of a Palestinian state, stems from valid concerns about preserving Israel’s identity as both Jewish and democratic. These concerns revolve around avoiding the creation of a bi-national state, preventing the loss of the Jewish majority in the country, and averting the security, economic, and social burdens associated with taking responsibility for millions of Palestinians. However, these concerns assume that opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state in Gaza and Judea and Samaria will inevitably lead to the aforementioned ills.

There exist alternative possibilities that deviate from the doomsday scenarios. For instance, in Gaza, one could contemplate a creative approach involving incentivizing (through sticks or carrots) a humanitarian migration of the Gazan population to Sinai in a careful and calculated manner. This measure could effectively mitigate the demographic risk. 

Moreover, the future trajectory of Judea and Samaria remains uncertain. An unsettling scenario of Arabs from Judea and Samaria infiltrating Israeli settlements, akin to the events of October 7 in Gaza, is not far-fetched and could materialize. Violent uprisings, reminiscent of the Second Intifada, might erupt, impacting the demographics of the regions. It is essential to exercise humility and realism, acknowledging that there are no magic solutions and allowing time to unfold until opportune moments arise.

It is evident that international pressure will persist on Israel, urging concessions and withdrawals in the territories of Judea and Samaria while also opposing changes in Gaza’s territories and population. However, establishing new realities on the ground in Gaza, as previously mentioned, necessitates the American administration exploring an “interim” solution for evacuating Gazans, with collaboration from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the Gulf states. The ongoing war and the upcoming US presidential elections in about a year might pave the way for more innovative approaches in Gaza. 

In Judea and Samaria, Israel should maintain a prudent strategy, balancing discreet construction and development behind the scenes (accompanied by sustained Jewish demographic growth in the region) with tactical compromises and minor gestures toward the American administration.

Ultimately, time is an ally for Israel on all fronts, and history has demonstrated that impulsive and hastily executed solutions labeled as “now” tend to falter, posing risks to the security of the State of Israel and its citizens.

The writer has a PhD in political studies. He is a military strategy and national security expert, and a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Israel Defense and Security Forum (Habithonistim).