Research has shown that public hysteria in emergency situations is a myth. If the public is behaving irrationally, it is the result of authority figures' irrational management of public service information.
In recent days, there has been an uptick in public hysteria in response to a possible war with Iran. The Israeli public is fed up with threats, dangers, and wars. In professional terminology, we refer to this as victimization, in the sense of prolonged and frequent exposure to a certain threat.
In such a situation, people use one of two primary strategies to cope. Those with relatively high mental resilience simply become indifferent to any mention of the threat. These people go through a process of desensitizing themselves to the threat and turn a deaf ear up until they think the threat has become tangible and immediate. Until then, there is nothing to talk about with them.
People with lower mental resilience react anxiously to mentions of war or the war getting worse, and then they practice denial.
In both cases, the result is the same – ignoring the supposed threat and trying to keep going through life as normal.
It is surprising to discover how much these coping mechanisms have taken root in Israeli society and are valid even during an active war. Israelis have learned to develop methods of managing reality to help them decide when they need to be more alert to a threat and when they can continue with their daily lives.
How the public generally reacts to impending threats
In 2013, Syrian President Bashar Assad used chemical weapons against his people. The US president at the time, Barack Obama, threatened to invade Syria if he did not get rid of the chemical weapons. Only after Obama's threat and the subsequent Syrian threats toward Israel did the Israeli public go to get the protective gas masks, queuing in line for hours. The same gas masks they could get delivered to their homes for a minimal fee months before.
This is the reason a few days after October 7, when a representative of Home Front Command said the same thing on TV that they have been saying for years - To stock up on water for a few days - Israelis ran hysterically to the stores and emptied the shelves.
When the threat becomes actual and imminent, our senses become hyper-stimulated and we are more willing to take action that we normally have no attention or desire to perform. This is also the reason why a few months later, when talks began about extensive and prolonged power outages, many started to equip themselves with a generator and portable chargers. And this is also the reason why now, when the head of IDF intelligence Maj.-Gen. Aharon Haliva said that "it is not certain that the worst is behind us," the public reacts harshly.
As soon as a signal for a "real" threat is given, Israelis will know what to do and how to do it and will be ready to pay the price. But until then? Let them live in peace.
In study after study, data shows the same thing over and over again. The Israeli public will do everything possible to try to preserve their daily routines, even during war. And truthfully? There is nothing more rational than that.. Humans cannot constantly think about injury and death and be constantly alert to danger and function as normal.
Even as the war rages on, all Israelis want is to keep peace of mind - to give some relief to the tormented souls. If the price is that from time to time they must run to the supermarkets and buy equipment or "empty" the ATMs - so be it. It would be beneficial for decision-makers to understand that this is not a public hysteria or irrational behavior, but their irrational management that gives rise to these reactions.
The writer is a senior lecturer at the Department of Emergency & Disaster Management, Tel Aviv University.