Five years ago, security specialist Yossi Melman wrote a series of articles in The Jerusalem Report warning that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policy on Hamas was dangerous and could lead to a war in which Israel might have to retake the Gaza Strip. After a flare-up between Hamas and Israel in early May 2019, he presciently cautioned:
While the Hamas position is clear and its aims well known, it is difficult to read Netanyahu and understand what motivates him. As reported here by this writer in several articles, Netanyahu’s long-term strategy seems to be to prevent the creation of one unified Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. He no longer talks about the “two-state solution.” In order to achieve his goal, he is trying to divide the Palestinians into two separate entities – one in Gaza and one in the West Bank, both of which will have limited autonomy.
This is why Netanyahu is weakening the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank by depriving it of a significant portion of its own tax monies collected by Israel. At the same time, he allows Qatar to transfer a monthly “ransom” of $30 million to Gaza, part of which goes to Hamas, enabling it to produce rockets and other armaments. No wonder that his critics, including from within his ruling Likud party and the cabinet, call it “blood money” or “protection money” and blame Netanyahu for surrendering to terror.
Netanyahu's mysterious Hamas plan
The mystery surrounding Netanyahu’s approach is even more difficult to understand, since it seems to contradict his own long-term goals. If he wishes to divide and rule, it should be in his interest to help Gaza and its people lead as normal a life as possible. However, by refusing to reach a long-term solution with Hamas, he only aggravates the situation.
Not only Hamas understands this reality but so does Egypt. Western diplomatic sources involved in the efforts to reach a comprehensive solution told me that they had heard Egyptian officials express their frustration. “We feel like we’re dealing with two little kids in a kindergarten,” they cited the Egyptians as saying.
IDF soldiers operating in central Gaza, April 25, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)
Surely it’s also an Egyptian national interest that Gaza will remain calm. Egypt and Israel are strong allies and, as President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi admitted in an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes a few months ago, they have enhanced their military and intelligence cooperation in the war against ISIS in Sinai....
It is clear to all involved parties that if – in a matter of weeks after Netanyahu forms his new cabinet – a comprehensive long-term agreement is not achieved soon by Israel and Hamas, a new war will break out once again, with one exception.
This time, it will be much more violent. Thousands of casualties can be expected on both sides, with great damage to buildings and property. And there is the strong possibility that in the eventuality of a new war, the IDF will have no choice but to conquer Gaza, which its commanders are against, as are as the majority of Israelis.
Tragically, Melman’s forecast was spot-on. Because he felt that his articles weren’t having enough of an impact, he left The Jerusalem Report and became a columnist for Haaretz. When I reminded him recently about this article, he replied, “Frankly, I forgot that I wrote such an accurate description and that I turned out to be a prophet.”
In a recent column published in Haaretz, Melman issued a new warning – that like Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, Israel’s invasion of Gaza could become a war “with no end in sight.” As difficult as this scenario is to digest, more than six months into the war, Melman’s red alert must be taken seriously.
After Iran launched a massive attack against Israel on April 13, as Hamas still held 133 hostages and Hezbollah posed an even greater threat on Israel’s northern front, no one wants a never-ending war in Gaza.
