After news broke early Saturday of the Israel Air Force’s extensive strikes on Iranian missile sites, drone facilities, and radar systems deep within the Islamic Republic, one country’s response was both typically mundane and yet tantalizingly intriguing: Saudi Arabia.
Given its strategic rivalry with Iran and its delicate, evolving ties with Israel, Riyadh’s reaction was anticipated as a key signal of the kingdom’s balancing act in the region.A Saudi Foreign Ministry statement expressed the kingdom’s “condemnation and denunciation” of the targeting of Iran while calling for a halt to the continued escalation in the region. Interestingly, the Saudi statement avoids any direct mention of Israel, not even referring to it as “the enemy,” a common phrase used by states that do not recognize its existence.Ten years ago, Riyadh’s stance might have been more forceful. The current response reflects a more calculated approach: recognizing Iran’s sovereignty while showing an implied acceptance of Israel’s actions regarding regional security.
What's the wait?
The Saudis have also officially stated on several occasions since the Abraham Accords were signed that any normalization deal with Israel depends on solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, diplomacy is very different between what is played out in the public arena and what takes place behind closed doors.
MBS, the young and forward-looking Saudi prince, is known to be less patient than many of his older predecessors in Saudi diplomacy with the Palestinians. In January, he allegedly told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that he does not personally care about what he referred to as the “Palestinian issue.”MBS’s vision to bring the kingdom into the 21st century and reduce its dependency on oil has given renewed hope for a Saudi-Israel normalization deal to become a reality.Suppose Saudi Arabia diverts its focus from Israel to pursue a rapprochement with Iran. In that case, it risks undermining the very alliance that has the potential to secure long-term stability in the region. Instead of looking toward Tehran, Saudi Arabia should focus on deepening its engagement with Israel. The framework provided by the Abraham Accords offers a blueprint for cooperation.Saudi Arabia must weigh the potential gains of relations with Iran against the far-reaching benefits of a strategic partnership with Israel. The lessons of the past are clear: Iran cannot be trusted to foster long-term peace. Instead, Riyadh should look toward Israel, a partner that has demonstrated its willingness to collaborate and innovate for a more peaceful future. Let us hope the Saudis do not squander this moment by turning toward those who have repeatedly shown that their interests lie in disruption, not peace.