For decades, the primary security goal of the Gulf monarchies has been to contain and diminish the military capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Its conventional threat, its relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons, and its campaign of regional subversion via proxies pose a fundamental threat to their stability and, in some cases, their very existence.
Nevertheless, in the immediate aftermath of Israel’s recent strike against Iran, a chorus of condemnation echoed from Arab Gulf capitals. This was accompanied by a rather monolithic analysis from many regional commentators and Gulf-based think tanks, portraying the attack as an act of aggression misaligned with Gulf interests.
According to these interpretations, Israel’s actions destabilize the region, damage the path of dialogue the Gulf monarchies worked hard to achieve, and risk a retaliation from Iran that will harm their own security.
The factors shaping public discourse
This public discourse has been shaped by three primary factors. First are the official condemnations themselves, which are often treated as the definitive expression of Gulf policy. This creates an apparent dissonance between public statements and underlying strategic imperatives.
Second is the ongoing dialogue that nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have opened with Iran, a pragmatic shift after years of a more hawkish approach and being physically targeted by Iranian aggression. It wasn’t long ago that these states led vocal, and at times military campaigns against Iran and its proxies.
Third, and critically, is the current Arab sentiment towards Israel. The deeply emotive images emerging from Gaza and the low standing of the current Israeli government can reasonably shape public opinion on any action it undertakes.
Shared strategic interests
However, a more complex reality lies beneath this surface. The Israeli strike aligns with the core strategic interest of all six Gulf states to reduce Iran’s dominance and weaken the extremist ayatollahs’ regime. This shared interest bridges states from Iran-friendly Qatar to a Saudi Arabia in the midst of a new rapprochement, and even to a traditionally neutral Oman.
One of many examples is the reported elimination of the senior Iranian commander who orchestrated the devastating 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco facilities. With that single act, Israel effectively delivered a form of justice for the kingdom. It is therefore safe to assume that it prompted a few smiles in Riyadh.
The diplomatic dialogue initiated in recent years was born not of newfound trust, but of pragmatism. After a decade of confronting Iran, this diplomatic track provided a temporary, vital quiet. It created the stability needed for the UAE to host the Expo, for Qatar to host the World Cup, and for Saudi Arabia to concentrate on its Vision 2030, part of a regional pivot toward economy-based diplomacy.
This quiet, however, while productive, is both deceptive and fragile. It may have paused the threat, but the fundamental Iranian danger has not changed. In that context, the public denouncements are a tactical move to deflect potential retaliation from Iran, not a strategic goal to protect Iranian empowerment.
A more nuanced perspective from Gulf scholars might be expected. What seems to be missing is a deeper analysis that acknowledges the not-so-distant past of the Gulf leaderships’ attitudes toward Iran, questioning the current dialogue approach, and recognizes the long-term interest of the Arab Gulf in a safer, more stable Middle East, a goal Israel’s actions may be helping to realize.
Beyond public statements, Gulf leaders face a genuine strategic dilemma between hedging and choosing a credible coalition. With a real possibility that the United States will join Israel’s campaign against Iran, and with international legitimacy for countering Iran’s military entrenchment at an unusual high, the Arab Gulf states have a rare opportunity to help reshape the regional order to serve their long-term interests.
Coordinated action could significantly degrade Iran’s military infrastructure and disrupt the foundations of its extremist regime, potentially setting back its regional ambitions by decades. Such a move holds a great promise of a safer Middle East for all.
The writer is a researcher of the Gulf states at the University of Haifa.