Israel has long regarded a nuclear-armed Iran as perhaps the gravest existential threat it faces – a reality grounded not only in rhetoric but in Tehran’s actions and capacity.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly called for Israel’s elimination, saying only a couple of days ago, “Israel won’t exist in 25 years.”
That notion is not mere bluster. Iran has amassed a stockpile of at least 409 kg. of 60%-enriched uranium, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. That is enough to turn Iran nuclear within weeks if further processed.
These facts combine to produce a stunning change in regional dynamics: a nuclear-capable, ideologically hostile Iran is soon not a distant threat but an impending crisis.
As its proxy networks – namely, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis – weaken amid Israeli airstrikes, Iran’s internal debate on weaponization grows louder. Tehran now sees nuclear arms not merely as symbolic weapons of mass destruction but as instruments to reassert regional influence and deter Israeli or US interference.
The consequence of Iran crossing the nuclear threshold would extend far beyond Israeli concerns. Regional rivals – Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt – might begin their own nuclear programs, shattering decades of nonproliferation and triggering a Middle East arms race. Such a scenario would transform the region, with nuclear weapons easily capable of falling into volatile hands in what is already a tinderbox.
Diplomatic measures – such as reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal ushered in under former US president Barack Obama – remain the most globally accepted path to halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But that route has repeatedly faltered. The US exit under President Donald Trump, internal Iranian resistance, and distrust among Western powers mean that time is ticking against containment.
Critics argue that preemptive military strikes risk escalating the very danger they seek to prevent. This course of action could push Iran toward the bomb, they argue. Iran itself recently said an attack on its nuclear facilities could force it “to change doctrine” – euphemistically implying that it could revoke its supposed fatwa against nuclear arms.
Yet, let’s consider the delusive assumption of inaction. Iran’s breakout window has already shrunk – from months to mere weeks – in recent years.
If the world chooses the path of passivity, each passing day will bring with it the risk that Iran would build at least one bomb, test it covertly, and use it as a shield for its proxies. Once operational, even targeted diplomatic pressure or sanctions may be powerless, and with it, a Pandora’s box opens. It only takes one bomb to annihilate everything.
Israel follows the Begin Doctrine
Israel’s strategy of preemption against nuclear threats – known as the Begin Doctrine – has proven to be effective, as with Operation Opera, the bombing of Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981; and Operation Outside the Box, an attack on Syria’s Al-Kibar reactor in 2007.
These strikes bought time – but Iran today is vastly more advanced and deeply networked. A surgical strike may delay Iran’s progress by months, but critical facilities are buried (such as Fordow), dispersed, and shielded.
By launching Operation Rising Lion, Israel was wildly successful in achieving its immediate military goals: striking the nuclear facilities of Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, killing nuclear scientists, and targeting missile infrastructure.
These actions may have set back enrichment time lines by months and demonstrated Israel’s ability to degrade Iran’s air defenses. But they also sparked fears that Iran might escalate and accelerate its nuclear drive.
Preemption, if reckless and ill-considered, carries the potential for enormous danger, including regional war, international condemnation, civilian casualties, and ecological fallout. On the other hand, a nuclear-armed Iran would shatter global nonproliferation efforts, ignite a Middle East arms race, and embolden extremists in Sanaa, the Sinai, and elsewhere.
If Israel fails to act, the world may very well face a far more volatile region in which nuclear weapons are normalized and deterrence collapses. Preventing this outcome is vital for global stability.
The clock is ticking. Iran advances in uranium enrichment and nuclear infrastructure every day. Its proxies may be weakened, but its ambitions are strengthened.
Israel can strike decisively – but not forever. This is a moment of existential choice: Act now to forestall catastrophe, or risk living in a world where deterrence has failed, and the region is barred from safety.