In an era where wars are fought more with intelligence weapons than with firearms, and in an age governed by the laws of information and technology, the Iranian regime finds itself facing an unprecedented and seemingly insurmountable crisis, unlike anything it has experienced since the establishment of the Islamic Republic.
The recent humiliating setback in its conflict with its sworn enemy, Israel, was not merely painful due to the fleeting military strikes themselves, but far worse were the repercussions. These events exposed Iran militarily, intelligence-wise, and socially, revealing a deep-rooted intelligence breach that has shaken the regime to its core. Now, every official in the corridors of power looks at those around him with suspicion and distrust.
For decades, the Iranian regime believed itself to be impervious within its own borders, confident that its security apparatus was capable of safeguarding its secrets from enemy eyes. Yet recent events have laid bare a reality bordering on dark comedy. Israeli espionage networks were not a sudden development but the fruit of long-term investment dating back to the Iranian Revolution in 1979.
Over four decades, Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, patiently and skillfully wove its web, exploiting every crack in Iran’s walls and every weakness in its societal fabric, until it achieved the level of influence and penetration it holds today.
What is striking is that this infiltration did not stop at the lower rungs of society or the forgotten margins; it reached the very heart of Iran’s military and security institutions.
When the head of the Revolutionary Guard Corps intelligence and two other generals are killed in precisely timed Israeli strikes, it becomes clear that even the most sensitive intelligence has been compromised. When Israel’s advanced, cutting-edge aircraft can reach their targets with pinpoint accuracy, supported by artificial intelligence and guidance from within, it suggests a level of internal collaboration far beyond what was ever imagined.
As further evidence, reports indicate that Israeli intelligence successfully smuggled weapons and equipment into Iranian territory prior to the recent strikes, weapons later used to target Iranian defenses from within. This reveals a degree of coordination and planning that goes beyond traditional intelligence operations, entering the realm of hybrid warfare that blends espionage, military action, and psychological warfare.
Confronted with this damning reality, the mullahs’ regime has resorted to its most familiar weapon: executions and repression. In 2025 alone, Iranian authorities executed four individuals accused of spying for Israel and arrested hundreds more in a sweeping campaign targeting 700 people allegedly linked to the “Zionist enemy.” While these numbers may seem shocking, they reflect the sheer panic gripping the regime, the gnawing sense that danger lurks around every corner.
Yet the issue goes beyond mere statistics. The social composition of those accused of espionage reveals another layer of the Iranian regime’s tragedy. Many belong to ethnic minority groups, particularly Kurds and Azerbaijanis in border regions. This reality points to Israel’s exploitation of deep-seated social and economic tensions in these areas, where minorities find themselves deprived of opportunities and marginalized in a society that claims unity and cohesion.
Herein lies a danger greater than any external threat: a theocratic regime that loses the trust of large segments of its own people becomes vulnerable to collapse from within. When ethnic minorities become tools in the hands of others, the problem runs deeper than mere intelligence breaches; it strikes at the very foundation of the nation’s social cohesion.
Today, the Iranian regime is trapped in an endless spiral of suspicion and paranoia. Every government employee is now under suspicion, every soldier a potential traitor, every ordinary citizen a possible “enemy informant.” This psychologically corrosive environment fosters a climate of distrust that paralyzes the regime’s ability to make decisive decisions and cripples the functioning of vital institutions.
Perhaps most critically, this intelligence breach comes at a highly sensitive moment in the region’s history. Tensions are escalating, and political equations are growing more complex. The Iranian regime, which once counted on its nuclear program as a bargaining chip in negotiations, now finds itself empty-handed after the United States reduced its nuclear facilities to rubble.
In this context, the wave of executions and arrests appears as a desperate attempt to plug the leaks and send a deterrent message to anyone considering cooperation with the enemy. Still, history teaches us that violence is no solution to systemic crises. A regime that relies solely on repression as its governing mechanism is digging its own grave.
What is happening in Iran today is reminiscent of the fall of totalitarian dictatorships in the not-so-distant past. The end usually begins from within. When a regime loses the trust of its people, and when its security apparatus is more preoccupied with fighting its own citizens than its external enemies, the cracks begin to show, often leading to total collapse.
Iranian regime is falling, stands at a crossroads
The pressing question now is: How can the mullahs’ regime safeguard its national security when its internal security is crumbling? How can it confront external enemies when it is busy fighting internal phantoms, some of which may be figments of its own imagination?
The Iranian regime stands at a crossroads. It can either reconsider its domestic policies and rebuild trust with its people, though this seems unlikely given its current priorities, or it can continue down the path of repression and internal terror, which will only hasten its decline and downfall. History, as we know, is unforgiving to regimes that choose the wrong path, no matter how strong they may appear at any given moment.
Amid this storm, the future of the Iranian regime is shrouded in thick fog. Israel’s devastating and spectacular strikes, dancing across Iran’s skies and shaking its soil, have exposed the fragility of Iran’s defenses and military capabilities, stripping away the regime’s hollow bravado. More importantly, they have shown the world that the Iranian regime is not the fearsome bogeyman it claimed to be. To its followers, it may have seemed a lion, but in its confrontations with Israel, its vulnerabilities and weaknesses have been laid bare.
Thus, the regime now faces a crisis unlike any before. It is not only fighting a skilled external enemy but also an internal rot of doubt eating away at it like cancer.
In a world ruled by intelligence and information, this regime may soon discover that its traditional weapons of repression and terror are no longer enough to ensure its survival.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.