US President Donald Trump is rekindling his bromance with one of the world’s most outspoken anti-Israel, antisemitic, and pro-Hamas figures, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Their relationship has run hot and cold, trading flattery and insults over the years, but it appears to be currently warming. They have spoken several times since last November’s presidential election, and aides are keeping in close contact. One of the items reportedly on the agenda is the F-35, the world’s most advanced fighter.
Erdogan wants to buy dozens of the fifth-generation stealth fighters, which are a backbone of Israel’s defenses. That has IDF planners worried about the impact on its qualitative military edge in light of his hostility toward the Jewish state.
Trump blocked the sale in his first term after Turkey purchased Russian-made S400 surface-to-air missiles. American defense officials feared for the security of advanced US technology alongside a Russian intelligence-gathering system like the S-400. They worried that Turkey’s new defense relationship with Russia was incompatible with its membership in NATO.
Is Turkey a problem for security?
Turkey “increasingly is a problem for US national security” and is seen as “unreliable” within NATO, according to Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official and American Enterprise Institute scholar.
In the view of Israel’s strategic thinkers, Turkey under Erdogan has gone from an ally to an increased threat and a focus for enhanced security preparations.
Another concern is that Turkey wants to build its own defense industry and “can reverse engineer any advanced technology it is given [making] the idea of selling the F-35 even more self-defeating,” Rubin wrote.
But now, the Turkish strongman is reportedly confident that the highly transactional Trump won’t be able to resist a multi-billion-dollar F35 deal. Any sale must face Congressional review, where many already question Erdogan’s commitment to democracy and NATO. Supporters of Greece and Israel can be expected to lobby against the deal.
Trump, who once declared himself a “big fan” of Erdogan, sent him a scathing letter in 2019 threatening to destroy the Turkish economy” saying history will look on him as a “devil” and a “fool” if he didn’t curb attacks on the Kurds in northern Syria. Now they’re back to making nice.
The US and Israel have backed Kurdish independent autonomy within Syria under former president Bashar al-Assad and want to see it protected by the new regime. The Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDR) have been Washington’s lead partner against ISIS, and they are worried Trump’s plans to reduce the US presence in the region will leave them vulnerable. SDR is currently negotiating Kurdish autonomy with the new Damascus regime and Turkey. Syrian and Iraqi Kurds have long-standing, informal relationships with Israel.
The new regime in Syria wants to be friends with the United States and Turkey and, potentially, Israel. Trump looked to Erdogan for guidance in dealing with the new regime in Damascus, notably when it involved lifting sanctions and meeting the new leader.
Turkey wants a role in reshaping Syria, once a part of its Ottoman Empire. Damascus’s new rulers are looking to Turkey to replace Iran in rebuilding its military and the two governments announced they would cooperate in fighting ISIS. That is likely to mean a permanent Turkish presence in Syria, which could lead to clashes with Israel.
Erdogan's positions and what it means for Israel
Relations between Washington and Ankara may be warming, but there is no sign that Erdogan is cooling his anti-Israel rhetoric. The State Department and Jewish organizations have accused Erdogan of antisemitism; he may be the most dangerous antisemite this side of Tehran.
He recently declared, “Allah will destroy Israel,” threatened direct intervention in the Israel-Hamas War, and compared Israel’s leaders to Hitler and Stalin. He has accused Israel of “crimes against humanity” at the International Court of Justice and severed diplomatic and trade relations with the Jewish state last November over the war in Gaza.
Like Qatar, he has been a reliable supporter of Hamas and given its exiled leadership and their families safe – and luxurious – sanctuary. Both countries are confident Washington’s interests will immunize them from possible repercussions for aiding Hamas.
“Erdogan sees a lot of himself in Trump and his policies,” like shaking up institutions, “polarizing rhetoric,” and his “distaste for liberal, progressive agendas,” writes Alper Coskun of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Trump is an avowed fan of Erdogan,” and the two “are transactional partners with converging mindsets.”
Days after Erdogan arrested his main political rival, Ekrem Imamoglu, mayor of Istanbul in March, Trump praised Erdogan as “a good leader,” Coskun reported, and Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff spoke of “a lot of positive, good news” out of Turkey.
Trump has an affinity for strongman leaders like Erdogan, and Vladimir Putin in Russia, Viktor Orban in Hungary, Narendra Modi in India, and Xi Jinping in China. His dealings with democratic allies in Europe and North American, by contrast, are frequently rocky and acerbic.
Prior to Erdogan’s Islamist Justice and Development Party coming to power in 2002, Turkey was a democracy that enjoyed close political, military, and economic ties with Israel.
Turkey repeatedly demands Israel end its occupation of the West Bank, yet it still occupies the northern part of Cyprus after more than 50 years, which it renamed the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.” Neither the United Nations, the United States, nor any other country recognizes it. Israel has close political, economic, and military ties with the independent Republic of Cyprus on the southern half of the island. It is also a popular destination for Israeli tourists and Israelis seeking civil marriages.
Turkey and Israel took steps toward repairing the relationship, but that ended after the Hamas massacres of October 7, 2023, and Israel’s retaliation.
Trump has shown he is a good friend of Israel and willing to act against antisemitism. He can reinforce those commitments by telling Erdogan that what he is saying and doing are unacceptable. There is much at stake in the bilateral relationship, and Erdogan needs warm ties more than Trump does. If the American president can bully universities by withholding federal research funding, he should have the courage to stand up to an autocrat like Erdogan.
The writer is a Washington-based journalist, consultant, lobbyist, and former legislative director at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.