After almost two years of war, it is tempting to welcome the continuation of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel as a relief, one that gives the country a chance to pause, regroup, and catch its collective breath.
Tempting, but foolhardy, because the truth is that Gaza’s terrorists are far from having been eliminated.
On Monday night, Channel 14’s Hallel Bitton Rosen reported exclusively that Israel’s latest intelligence assessment is that Hamas’s military capabilities are still alarmingly strong.
The organization has 20,000 terrorists in its ranks, divided into six brigades, each consisting of four battalions. Its arsenal contains hundreds of rockets, many of which are capable of hitting Tel Aviv, as well as thousands of rocket-propelled grenades and explosive devices that can be used against Israeli soldiers and civilians.
Incredibly, the intelligence appraisal says that half of the pre-war tunnel network in Gaza remains operational.
While the report noted that Hamas was significantly weakened over the past 24 months, it concluded that it still retains the ability to launch pinpoint infiltration attacks into Israel.
No less disconcerting is the intelligence document’s conclusion that Hamas views the ceasefire as a temporary pause that enables it to regroup and rearm.
These findings do not indicate a defeated foe. In fact, they are the warning signs of an adversary biding its time until it can carry out yet another massacre.
Equally disturbing is the way in which Israel responded to Hamas’s brazen violations of the ceasefire, which included the latter’s refusal to return the remains of all the deceased hostages it is holding, and carrying out a terror attack on October 19 that killed two IDF soldiers.
While bombing various Hamas targets in Gaza, Israel announced that no humanitarian aid would enter the Gaza Strip until the terrorist organization lived up to its side of the bargain.
But within just a few hours, the government completely capitulated in the face of American pressure, halting all retaliatory measures and allowing the flow of aid to resume. This effectively allowed Hamas to avoid full retribution, in the process demonstrating incomprehensible weakness.
What does this tell us?
First, that Israel is no longer setting the timetable; the initiative is shifting away. When the negotiating table becomes the reward for terrorism, when the enemy dictates the rhythm of war instead of being crushed, a profound reversal has occurred.
Second, Israel is running the risk that Hamas will continue to pose an intolerable threat. In the ceasefire framework, the two main requirements for Israel’s security were a full hostage release and the disarmament of Hamas. The military thrust on the ground, it was hoped, would degrade Hamas to the point where the organization could not simply rebuild and strike again. Instead, Israel accepted a deal whose second stage contains no hard timelines for Hamas disarmament, leaving the matter vague and open-ended.
Third, the ceasefire allows Hamas breathing space. Even if active combat has dropped off significantly for now, terrorist infrastructure remains, such as the tunnels, battalions, and rocket arsenals. In a sense, Israel’s strategic objective of “destroying Hamas” has been postponed. It has not, one hopes, been dropped altogether, but it has most certainly been deferred.
When a country makes a truce without having completely defeated the enemy, the message is no longer one of dominance but of exhaustion.
Let me be clear: Ceasefires are not inherently bad. They can spare lives, and the current one brought the last living 20 Israeli hostages home to their families.
But in this instance, the second stage of the ceasefire is precisely the wrong mechanism at the wrong time. It signals to our enemies that through violence and endurance, they can negotiate favorable terms. It signals to our allies that we may be willing to accept less than victory. And it signals to our people – the families of the fallen, as well as the soldiers still in harm’s way – that the risk we took to fight may not produce the outcome we were promised.
What should Israel do instead? Seek not to pause the war but rather to win it. That means not merely reducing Hamas’s capabilities but removing them as a threat altogether. Nothing less than full disarmament, the dismantling of all terror tunnel networks, and the complete disbanding of Hamas’s organizational structure. It means sending a message that terrorism will not be rewarded with bargaining power.
Hamas has, not surprisingly, violated the terms of the ceasefire. Now it must be made to pay the price.
The families of our fallen heroes in the IDF, as well as the nation as a whole, deserve more than just a truce. They deserve assurance that the enemy who slaughtered so many will not remain intact.
Every hour that Gaza remains under ceasefire without Hamas’s total and irreversible defeat is an hour that Israel’s future security remains at risk.
The writer served as deputy communications director under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.