Two years after the October 7 massacre, the Israeli hope that Hamas would emerge from the war politically defeated has been shattered by the hard data of the latest poll published by Dr. Khalil Shikaki (Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, October 2025).
To the deep disappointment of US President Donald Trump and Israel, Hamas is not merely surviving; it is actually getting stronger. Not because of battlefield success but precisely because it managed to rebrand the release of thousands of prisoners and the ceasefire as a “perceptual victory” that restores its legitimacy on both sides of the Green Line.
The numbers speak for themselves.
Some 53% of Palestinians still consider the decision to launch the October 7 attack “the correct decision.” Yes, support has dropped, but more than half of the Palestinian public still thinks that way. In the West Bank, the figure has remained steady at 59%. In Gaza, it plummeted to 38% in spring 2025, when destruction was at its peak, yet it immediately jumped back to 44% after the prisoner deal. Hamas has regained the street legitimacy of the move even in the ruins of Khan Yunis.
Pro-Hamas, anti-PA
The exact same pattern appears when examining satisfaction with Hamas’s performance in the war: 66% in the West Bank and 51% in Gaza, a clear majority in both regions.
Ask Palestinians whether Hamas should be disarmed, and the answer is unequivocal – no. An overwhelming 87% in the West Bank and 55% in Gaza oppose it. In other words, even in Gaza, after two years of hell, a majority still wants an armed Hamas because it is the only one that delivers tangible achievements like prisoner releases.
In hypothetical elections, Hamas retains its majority: 41% support in Gaza and 32% in the West Bank; in parliamentary elections, it would get 49% in Gaza and 40% in the West Bank.
The Palestinian public has simply grown sick of the so-called “moderate” camp – the Palestinian Authority. Some 80% demand PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s resignation, and only 23% are satisfied with him. The PA is seen as a burden and corrupt; it has no real base of support anywhere.
Exhaustion in Gaza
The only noticeable change in Gaza is sheer exhaustion. Support for armed struggle has dropped there to 30% (compared to 49% in the West Bank), while support for a two-state solution on the 1967 lines with tough conditions has skyrocketed to 61% (versus just 33% in the West Bank).
Gazans are willing to listen to ideas about a committee of experts (51% support), an Arab force without disarmament (53%), or a coordination role for the PA, but everything rests on one non-negotiable condition: Hamas remains armed and in control.
No, the people of Gaza have not suddenly realized that making peace with Israel is the answer. They simply want food, electricity, and reconstruction. They still believe Hamas will give them those things without selling out “national honor.”
In the West Bank, which felt only parts of the war on terror, there is no exhaustion, only accumulating rage. Personal security has collapsed to 15%, “the occupation” is once again the number-one problem, and Hamas is seen as the one that finally moved something after decades of stagnation in Ramallah.
Hamas is playing the game
Today, Hamas is playing on two fields simultaneously: In Gaza, it is “Pragmatic Hamas”: it keeps its weapons and is open to tactical compromises but controls the ground and the narrative. In the West Bank it is “Jihadi Hamas” – the sole symbol of resistance, the only candidate to replace the corrupt PA.
The split exists, but it is not between Hamas’s supporters and opponents. It is between two types of Hamas supporters: those who want it radical and proud (West Bank) and those who want it armed but quieter (Gaza).
The conclusion for President Trump, his peace council, Israel, and the Arab states is stark: Hamas is here to stay, the Palestinian public wants it as a military force, and there is no compromise in sight.
Two years after October 7, Hamas was not broken. It simply learned to play on multiple fields while gaining legitimacy in many diplomatic and Arab arenas – legitimacy fed directly by the US president’s envoy and by Qatar and Turkey, who are making sure the terror organization remains alive, kicking, and very much in the game.
The bottom line is the story Palestinians are telling themselves after the ceasefire: a story of resistance that succeeded despite the heavy blow it took. The consequences of that story, if Phase 2 of the Trump plan is not implemented, will be paid by the entire Middle East, which is now watching Hezbollah rebuild, Iran rearm, and Hamas do exactly the same.
The writer is CEO and director of communications at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.