In Israel, Arab citizens are not heading to the polls in droves - opinion

The 2026 Knesset elections are approaching, with many claiming that these will be the most important since the establishment of the State of Israel.

The solution to this puzzle lies in the million-dollar question: What will be the turnout among the Arab public?

Historically, participation of the Arab public in Knesset elections has experienced ups and downs. While in the 1949-1969 elections their turnout was slightly less than 80%, in the 1973-1984 elections there was a downward trend, with the average turnout being approximately 65%. However, in the 1988-1999 elections, which were held in the background of the first Palestinian uprising and the Oslo peace process, the turnout among the Arab public rose to an average of 75%.

The significant turning point in their participation occurred in the 2001 elections, in which Likud candidate Ariel Sharon defeated then-prime minister and Labor Party chairman Ehud Barak by a margin of 25%. The huge gap stemmed, among other things, from the fact that as the candidate of the center-left bloc, Barak lost the traditional support of the Arab sector. Only 19% of the Arab public exercised their democratic right and voted in the 2001 elections, compared to 75% in the 1999 elections.

Israeli Arabs, who in the 1996 and 1999 elections gave 95% of their support to Peres and Barak over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, were outraged by Barak's conduct toward the Palestinians in the context of the Second Intifada, and particularly during the October events in which 13 Israeli Arabs were killed in clashes with the Israeli police. It is important to note that Barak's loss stemmed mainly from the lack of support he received among the Jewish public. Even if Israeli Arabs had voted in similar turnout rates to those in the 1996 and 1999 elections, Barak would have at most sweetened his defeat to a 12% margin.

In contrast to the 2001 elections for prime minister that were boycotted by the Arab public, in 2003, when the Israeli public once again voted with a single ballot for a party, there was a sharp decline in the turnout, from 79% in the 1999 elections to 68% in the 2003 ones. This phenomenon did not escape the Arab public, with their turnout also dropping significantly, from 75% to 62%.

While the three Arab parties that ran separately in the 2003-2013 elections won 8 to 11 seats, the decision to raise the threshold from 2% to 3.25% before the 2015 elections left them no choice but to join forces. Since then, the Arab sector's turnout has depended on whether the Arab parties run together on the joint list. If so, the turnout will be relatively high, as will the Knesset seats (up to 65% and 15 mandates, respectively, as it was in the 2020 elections).

However, if the Arab parties run separately, the turnout drops significantly to just over 50% or even less (45% in 2021), as does the number of seats in the Knesset (10 in 2019a, 2021, and 2022).

Another fascinating phenomenon is the rate at which the Arab public votes for Zionist parties. While in the 1949-1977 elections, an average of 30% of Israeli Arabs voted for Zionist parties, in 1981-1992 this figure rose to an average of 50%. In the 1992 elections, there was even a 52% majority in the vote for Zionist parties, with Labor, led by Rabin, winning 20% of the Arab vote, giving it a little more than two seats out of the 44 it won.

However, since then, there has been a sharp increase in the Arab public's voting figures for Arab parties: From 62% in the 1996 elections to a peak of 88% in 2020, with a total average of just over 15% of Israeli Arabs voting for Zionist parties in the last four elections between 2019 and 2022.