As Tehran braces for an increasingly likely direct confrontation with the United States, the Islamic Republic is working urgently across the Middle East to consolidate control over what remains of its “axis of resistance.”
Iran’s proxy terror network, which spans from Beirut to Sanaa, has been battered over the past two and a half years. With an existential threat over its head, the regime will now attempt to salvage any remaining firepower to expand the Middle East battlefield and control the regional chaos.
Reports over the weekend from Saudi outlets Al-Arabiya and Al Hadath noted that Hezbollah is now being directly overseen by officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, instead of its traditional Lebanese leadership.
These officers are reportedly supervising intensified military and security preparations, rebuilding the group’s infrastructure, and even personally managing and perhaps executing strategic war plans.
Hezbollah is not the force it was before October 7. Israeli strikes have continued to dismantle terror infrastructure in southern Lebanon and target operatives and field commanders, including a weekend operation that killed eight terrorists. Its domestic legitimacy is under increased pressure as Lebanon’s fragile political leadership has continually signaled, at least rhetorically, a willingness to enforce the terms of the 2024 ceasefire with Israel, seize Hezbollah weaponry, and potentially cut itself loose from Iran’s tight grip.
Iranian presence, however, is still felt in Beirut, with the IRGC preparing Hezbollah to join a war Lebanon cannot afford and is unlikely to survive intact.
Beyond Lebanon, Iran has also sought to reinforce militias in Iraq and Syria, where remnants of its network continue to operate, retaining the capability to target American bases in the region and occupy key corridors. Similarly, a report by Al-Ain over the weekend claimed the Houthis in Yemen have mobilized on multiple fronts across the country. Whether their immediate focus is domestic or regional remains unclear.
Ultimately, the Houthis’ strategy will also align with Iran’s interests. Mobilization in Yemen, alongside Tehran’s efforts to consolidate tighter control over Hezbollah, very likely indicates that Iran is planning for its proxies to retaliate against Israel and US assets across the region, if it is struck.
President Donald Trump’s military timeline
Iran’s options are narrowing. It finds itself backed into a corner, stuck between nuclear negotiations that were doomed to fail and American patience that is wearing thinner by the day. Nuclear talks and general ambiguity over President Donald Trump’s military timeline and plan have bought Washington time to amass warships and aircraft at a scale and tempo not seen in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Therefore, when Trump gives the order to initiate military action, Iran will almost certainly not limit retaliation, mainly against Israel, to its own territory.
Lebanon and Yemen have already endured economic collapse, internal division, and destroyed infrastructure. Being dragged into the Islamic Republic’s final salvo will only bring further devastation to a region looking to heal.
As such, regional experts told The Jerusalem Post’s Danielle Greyman-Kennard that domestic constraints could limit Hezbollah’s involvement in the war, with the group potentially opting for symbolic firings into open areas of northern Israel in hopes of signaling loyalty to Tehran while avoiding a major Israeli response.
Israel, for its part, must make clear that any attempt by Tehran’s various proxies to expand the battlefield beyond Iranian soil would exact an unbearable cost. Not only for the Islamic Republic, but for the nations hosting it. Domestically, Israel must be prepared for a multi-front attack, as Iran fires its final shots.
Is loyalty to the Islamic regime worth the repercussions?
With the chances of a US attack increasing by the day, the nations tethered to the Islamic Republic must ask themselves: Is loyalty to the Islamic regime worth the repercussions they would face the day after it falls?
The Islamic Republic’s economy remains under severe strain. Protests endure despite a brutal crackdown by authorities on Iranians demonstrating for their freedom.
The “Axis of Resistance” is brittle and destined to be shattered. For the people of Lebanon, Yemen, and across the Middle East, the cost of sinking with the Iranian warship may be far greater than the cost of breaking free from it.