Operation Roaring Lion signals a new era in Middle East power politics - opinion

We are witnessing unprecedented levels of American-Israeli military cooperation in the joint planning and execution of this operation. Israel has again demonstrated its strategic value to Washington – in stark contrast to the reluctance of every other regional (and European) US ally to participate. The image of a solid Jerusalem-Washington alignment represents a major diplomatic and deterrent asset for Israel.

As missile technology proliferates and its use in armed conflict becomes more likely, additional countries will seek capabilities to protect critical infrastructure and civilian populations – and some will turn to Israel’s defense industries.

Iran's willingness to strike Gulf Arab states, NATO member Turkey, and EU member Cyprus has intensified threat perceptions and hostility toward Tehran across a wider range of countries. Its attack on Azerbaijan – an energy exporter – and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted global energy markets and driven up oil prices.

Iran’s strategy of escalation, intended to raise the costs of continuing the war and pressure for its end, is a gamble that may well fail. Tehran’s behavior also inflames long-standing Sunni-Shia tensions, and deepens its regional and international isolation.

The future of the revolutionary Shia regime remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the assumption that Iran’s opposition public can topple the ayatollahs’ rule is overly optimistic as long as the regime retains both the capability and the will to use lethal force against protesters. Without an armed opposition, the regime will endure – albeit in a weakened state. Deploying forces drawn from ethnic minorities such as Kurds and Balochis risks stoking Persian nationalist sentiment and fears of territorial partition, dynamics that could perversely help the regime survive.

Iran’s declining power does not herald a more peaceful Middle East. The region remains defined by deep-seated conflicts in which force is an acceptable instrument of statecraft, and by weak governments unable to restrain armed militias. The Middle East will continue to generate Islamic terrorism and violent crises.

Iran’s attacks on its neighbors will heighten threat perceptions across the region. Should the regime survive, the Iranian-Israeli confrontation will continue to be a defining feature of the regional order and an enduring source of instability.

The defeat of Iran and its proxies has created a vacuum, heralding a radical Sunni axis that is no less dangerous, embodied in Turkey and backed by Qatar. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and much of his inner circle represent a Turkish variant of the Muslim Brotherhood – a radical, anti-Western movement infused with nostalgia for the grandeur of the Ottoman Empire.

Erdogan’s Turkey also harbors nuclear ambitions. Washington has traditionally regarded Turkey as an important ally, and President Trump views Erdogan as a strong leader and friend. This assessment tends to overlook Turkish behavior that is often at odds with its role as a Western partner.

Erdogan’s attempts to dissuade America from attacking Iran failed, and his offer to mediate between the US and Iran was poorly received in Washington. However, his overtures have found a more receptive audience among Sunni states, which fear that a new Iranian leadership might revive the pre-revolutionary Iranian-Israeli alignment – thereby further enhancing Israeli power. In that scenario, balance-of-power logic would drive many regional states toward Turkey, one of the region’s strongest powers.

Turkey’s capabilities and ambitions are generously underwritten by Qatar, which has long funded Muslim Brotherhood activities worldwide. Doha’s media arm, Al Jazeera, serves as the leading propaganda outlet for Muslim extremists globally. Unlike Iran, Qatar has successfully maintained the image of a US ally in Washington, despite sustained support for Islamist causes. The West has failed to accurately assess both Turkey and Qatar.

The Middle East – cradle of Western civilization – remains an arena of civilizational struggle. Anti-Western attitudes rooted in radical Islam continue to resonate across the region, and find receptive audiences even in the West when amplified by far-left messaging. The extraordinary sympathy extended to Hamas, a fanatical Islamist organization, is a striking illustration of this moral confusion.

Iran’s nuclear program has long posed a challenge to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime. Tehran has enriched uranium to near-weapons-grade levels and covertly pursued weaponization. The destruction of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure strengthens the NPT regime and sends a powerful deterrent signal to other states with nuclear ambitions – including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt – both within and beyond the Middle East.

America’s willingness to use military force challenges the prevailing faith in diplomatic primacy and the widespread aversion to military action. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the failure of diplomacy to end that war, had already begun to shift Western thinking on this question. The failure of US diplomatic efforts to extract concessions from Iran, followed by the current military operation, accelerates that shift.

The strikes on Iran have sharpened doubts about the reliability of its principal allies, China and Russia. Both have once again declined to intervene, leaving Iran to absorb the assault alone – raising serious questions about their value as strategic partners, particularly in the developing world.

The United States, by contrast, stands firmly with Israel, signaling its continued engagement as an active global superpower. Washington’s ability to project military force to distant theaters without significant opposition demonstrates that the world is far less multipolar than many suppose. This should offer genuine reassurance to those who value freedom and tolerance.