Orthodox 'over-sampled' in US exit poll

Poll among absentee voters in Israel puts McCain way ahead; pollster: Survey "could've been better."

By ELIE LESHEM, JERUSALEM POST STAFF
John McCain 88 224 (photo credit: )
John McCain 88 224
(photo credit: )
News organizations quickly picked up a Tel Aviv-based pollster's "exit poll" Thursday claiming to show Republican presidential contender John McCain thrashing his Democratic rival Barack Obama by a three-to-one margin among American absentee voters in Israel. But Mitchell Barak, of Keevoon Research, Strategy and Communications, immediately acknowledged to The Jerusalem Post that the 76-24 percent McCain-Obama poll had "over sampled" voters from the Orthodox community to a certain extent. Two of the events at which voters were questioned were conducted in Orthodox institutions in Jerusalem. The third was held in a Tel Aviv brewery. "It could have been better if there were other events around the country," Barak said. The survey was promptly reported by the Associated Press, which quoted Barak saying it represented "a good indicator on how people are voting this year." The findings also rapidly appeared on the International Herald Tribune's Web site and some Israeli news sites. A total of 817 absentee ballot voters answered the 22-question survey at three voting events, Barak said: At the Dancing Camel Brewery in Tel Aviv on Sunday, at the YU Seminary in Jerusalem on Monday and in the capital's OU Center a day later. Sixty percent of the respondents described themselves as Orthodox. The poll also conducted an on-line survey among 1700 voters assisted by the "Vote from Israel" organization. An estimated 45,000 Americans in Israel requested absentee ballots. Fifty seven percent of the respondents cited "foreign policy, including Israel" as the basis for their presidential preference, while only 14% said the ailing economy determined their candidate of choice.