The slips used to vote in the 2019 elections, April 9th, 2019.
(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)
A survey conducted on Sunday by Ma'ariv showed that if the Knesset elections were held today, the right-wing bloc would receive 68 Knesset seats, compared to 65 in the elections that took place a month and a half ago.
According to the survey conducted by the Politics Panels Research Institute headed by Menahem Lazar, the Likud, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, retains its 35 Knesset seats, while Blue and White headed by MK Benny Gantz lost a seat and had 34 mandates.
The survey was conducted after the large demonstration organized by Blue and White in the Tel Aviv Museum square with the participation of tens of thousands of people, and at least for the moment being, the noisy campaign "Defensive Shield for Democracy" that it is running does not produce results.
The poll also shows that in the case of new elections, the two haredi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, would maintain their strength - 8 seats each - in other words, the draft bill crisis does not affect their voters. Ahmed Tibi is growing stronger in the poll, rising from 6 Knesset seats to 7 seats, and Labor, headed by Avi Gabai, is unable to recover and remains with only 6 Knesset seats.
On the other hand, Yisrael Beytenu, headed by Avigdor Liberman, which is causing the current coalition crisis because of its stubborn stance on the draft bill goes up from 5 to 6 seats. The Union of Right Parties headed by Bezalel Smotrich, who is eyeing the ministries of justice and education in the upcoming government, is also positioned at 6 seats, which is higher than the 5 in the last elections.
The left-wing Meretz party headed by Tamar Zandberg is strengthened by a single mandate and rises to 5 seats. The surprise of this time is the entry into the Knesset of the New Right party headed by Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked (who win 5 seats at the poll).
The poll foresees disaster for two parties: Kulanu by Moshe Kahlon and the United Arab List, each of whom won four seats in the last elections. If new elections are held, both parties are not expected to pass the electoral threshold. This poll might persuade Kahlon to merge with the Likud in the next elections. The bottom line is that if the elections were held today, the right-wing bloc would have 68 Knesset seats, which would make it easier for Netanyahu to form a government.
The survey included 503 members of Panel4All's political panel for conducting research on the Internet (a request to participate in the survey was sent to 3,119 panel members). The survey was conducted on May 26, 2019, on a representative sample of the adult population of Israel, Jews and Arabs alike, aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error is 4.4%.